Iran International and Al Jazeera reported on September 17, 2026, statements by leaders in the U.S., Iran and Israel (below). Those statements give a good picture of the U.S.-Iran-Israel standoff today. One should take into account campaigning for the upcoming elections with Trump's and Netanyahu's pronouncements.            I believe the betting is that Trump will wait until the midterms have taken place before pushing the ‘annihilate’ button. Noting the cry of alarm from Saudi Arabia and the expanding conflict, by then the interceptors supply in the region will be heading toward zero.  Trump says ‘big decision’ looms on whether to ‘annihilate’ Iran regime       “ I have a big decision coming up. Do I want to go in and annihilate them [the Iranian regime] or do I not? It's a big decision. Anything could happen with me ,” Trump told Axios.  Iran president says Tehran will not bow to US, Israel  ...

          Not surprisingly, Al Jazeera gave the fullest reporting on the nuclear-related developments with Iran on September 10. Their headline and subtitles were:            IAEA accuses Iran of ‘noncompliance’                      What has the IAEA accused Iran of?                      How has Iran responded?                      What is the UN Security Council expected to do?                      What impact could this have on the US war against Iran?                      What is the IAEA's history with Iran?  Iran International also posted on Sep 10 reports on numerous related developments....

          Today Reuters headlined:                                                                   Trump says US may hit Iran's Pickaxe Mountain soon .            Meanwhile, on the ‘diplomatic’ front, in advance of the September Board of Governors meeting next week, Reuters has reported that the U.S. is again leading a push for another Board resolution on Iran. This would follow Board Iran resolutions in June 2025, November 2025 and June 2026. This fourth one is the ‘ clincher ’; it would move the Iran nuclear case back onto the UN Security Council agenda, after a 20-year pause.            Why a Board resolution now? Why bomb Pickaxe now?            They...

          ISIS has published its analysis of the IAEA’s report on new developments on the clandestine nuclear program in Syria. As I wrote on August 20, more details “ can be expected to be discussed in the next DG report to the IAEA Board of Governors .”            In my August 20 blog, I went into what it would mean if the disclosed nuclear material was above the ‘ starting point of safeguards ’ or before that point. What has been revealed makes most of that not relevant or applicable.            To my surprise, the material is in the form of some 8,800 fabricated natural uranium metal fuel elements intended as the first core loading of the clandestine DPRK-duplicate graphite moderated, carbon dioxide cooled plutonium production reactor.            Yes, that was undeclared nuclear material that had to be reported to the IAEA under Syria’s NPT safeguard...

IAEA Director General Grossi was in Syria again (He was there in June.) and held a press conference in Damascus with the Syrian Foreign Minister. He reported having visited the site where in 2007 Israel bombed to destruction a nuclear reactor in construction, the buried remains of which are now being excavated, apparently under IAEA inspector observation.       Grossi also mentioned that IAEA inspectors will visit another site where there is nuclear material. He said: “ We’re talking about a few tons of nuclear material that could be put to bad use and Syria has decided to open up this site to the inspectors of the IAEA. This material will be accounted for and will be put within the international safeguard system .” No further details have been published (They can be expected to be discussed in the next DG report to the IAEA Board of Governors.)       Let’s see if DG Grossi’s remarks are correct regarding what the safeguards situation might be for...

Trump posted on August 2: Today's headlines suggest that Trump has the military 'card' and Iran has the rest of the deck. Trump wants a quick ' total surrender' and, not getting that, is likely to go for ' decapitation ' in the coming days. Does he realize that is what Iran wants? They want him to lose badly in the midterms and Netanyahu/Hegseth escalation is likely to achieve that.  Here are the August 3 headlines from Iran International. Trump  • Iran talks to proceed in two phases, Trump says  • Trump says he is giving Iran ' every last chance before decapitation '  • Trump says US blockade to remain until Iran deal or ‘ total surrender ’  • Trump touts ‘ denuclearization of Iran ’ as major achievement   Iran  • No new Iran negotiations planned despite Trump comments - CBS  • Khamenei aide says Trump deliberately kept Israel out of renewed Iran strikes  • Iran rejects US proposal to reopen Strait of Hormuz - Al Mayadeen  • Venu...

The IAEA has published part of its annual report on the international safeguards it carried out in 2025. (The entire confidential report is distributed to governments,)  In it there is a nice summary of IAEA's interactions with Iran in 2025. It explains that Iran was declared to be in noncompliance with its NPT safeguards agreement with IAEA and has not remedied that noncompliance, and that lack of information and access to the bombed nuclear enrichment facilities constitutes a "proliferation concern."  Here it is.  A. Safeguards Statement for 2025           In 2025, safeguards were applied for 190 States with safeguards agreements in force with the Agency. Forty-four States had comprehensive safeguards agreements in force, but no additional protocols in force.  Islamic Republic of Iran            For one State [ Iran] , the Secretariat found no indication of the diversion of declared nuclear material ...

     Reuters reported the following after the US bragged about hitting 80 targets in Iran, which included killing two fishermen and blowing up two railway bridges:                 In a letter to the United Nations Security Council on Wednesday, Iran's mission at the UN accused   the United States of "blatant violation of the Charter of the United Nations and its international                obligations" and said its attacks violated the memorandum of understanding signed by the two                     countries.                 A spokesperson for parliament's National Security Commission had said options for retaliation ⁠    included withdrawing from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), changing Iran's nuclear         doctri...

President Trump, once again ignoring his commitment in paragraph 1 of the Islamabad MOU, posted on June 28 a threat of use of force against Iran. But this time he seems to be threatening a nuclear attack, in order to accomplish his threat that “ the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist !”  Here is President Trump’s full threat.                      " United States aircraft just struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations, and coastal radar sites, for violating the Cease Fire Agreement, AGAIN! It is very possible that they will never learn! There may come a point when we are no longer able to be reasonable, and will be forced to militarily complete the job that we very successfully started. If that happens, the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist! " [ Truth Social]                  About an hour after Trump's post, Kuwait's army said its air d...

     U.S. President Donald Trump said on June 23 that Iran had agreed to nuclear inspections into "infinity," while Tehran said it had made no such concession in negotiations, raising questions about the viability of their fragile peace deal. [Reuters]            What our government officials and ‘experts’, and therefore journalists, continue to say or write about the Iran nuclear situation is quite often off-base. Is it too much to ask them to absorb the following nuclear nonproliferation fundamentals?            It starts with the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) of 1970. Iran is one of almost two hundred countries whose status under the NPT is a non-nuclear weapon state (NNWS). (Five states are nuclear weapon states (NWS)). When a NNWS adhered to NPT, it committed to the following:            - Not to “manufacture or otherwise acquire nuclear weapons” (Article II);...

Paragraph 1 of the Islamabad MOU, signed by President Donald Trump at Versailles a few days ago, includes:            1 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran … undertake … to r efrain from the threat or use of force against each other…       The start of negotiations in Switzerland today seemed to be going well, with Vice President Vance telling reporters President Trump had:                 " asked us to turn over a new leaf to transform our relationship with the people of Iran ".       But then, on Sunday, June 21, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social:                 " Iran must immediately stop their highly paid PROXIES in ‌Lebanon ⁠from causing trouble. If they don’t, ⁠we’ll hit Iran very hard again, just ⁠like we did last ⁠week, only harder!! !"       Fur...

It has taken a long time, but we finally have the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Nuclear issues are addressed only in paragraphs 8 and 9 of the 14 paragraphs. Here is my commentary on how the nuclear issues are treated, followed by the full text of the two paragraphs.  Commentary  1. No nuclear weapons . This commitment by Iran is the same as it made by joining the NPT. The NPT commitment has an ‘exit ramp’ through withdrawal from NPT. Will there be a comparable provision in the final deal?  2. Enriched uranium stockpiles . “ Resolve the disposition ” - how that will apply to all the enriched uranium - 60%, 20%, up to 5% - remains to be seen. Iran has committed “ to resolve ”, not to eliminate.  3. Uranium enrichment . Iran has “ agreed to discuss ” “ a satisfactory framework ” for the final deal, in relation to “ Iran’s nuclear needs .” At least formally in the MOU, Iran has not com...

The four-week NPT Review Conference has taken place and ended May 22, for the third consecutive time, without an agreed Outcome Document. Nevertheless, the drafts of that document are public, starting with the Zero Draft introduced by the Conference President, and four subsequent drafts.           Here is a summary of how four international safeguards topics were dealt with, followed by the draft texts for those topics: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); Compliance and Iran; Additional Protocol; Attacks on nuclear facilities   1. IAEA      While the principal text on the importance of IAEA is standard, it is good that the text did evolve to “ call on all States parties to ensure that IAEA continues to have the necessary political, technical and financial support so that it is able to effectively apply safeguards. ”  2. Compliance and Iran      This bracketed paragraph was largely responsible for the lack of ...

Iran responded on May 10 to a U.S. proposal to end fighting before starting talks on more contentious issues, including Iran's nuclear program. ( Reuters ) Here is what has been reported today on the Iran nuclear conundrum   • Suspending enrichment, dismantling nuclear facilities - WSJ   The Wall Street Journal reported: Iran said it was willing to suspend uranium enrichment for a shorter period than the 20-year moratorium proposed by the United States but rejected dismantling its nuclear facilities.  • Iran's enriched uranium stockpile             Trump says US will get Iran's enriched uranium - Full Measure   President Donald Trump interview with Sharyl Attkisson on the television program Full Measure: The United States would eventually get Iran’s enriched uranium buried under rubble and was monitoring the site. “ We’ll get that at some point... We have it surveilled. I did a thing called Space Force, and they are watchin...

So much “news” has come out on the first day of Trump’s so-called ‘ Project Freedom ’. It is not possible to know what is real and what is ‘fake’, who is exaggerating and how much. Here is the story that the headlines of the continuing postings by Iran International tell. Most important is the last one: expect Israel to restart massive bombing of Iran within 24 hours. Netanyahu and cohorts get their way: up the escalation ladder Trump will go!  • Iran says Fujairah attack a response to US ' adventurism ' - state media  • Iran threatens UAE with sweeping strikes if it makes any ' unwise ' move  • Iran military official denies US Navy report of boats sunk - state TV  • Iran says no vessels passed Hormuz, rejects US military's claim  • Iran fired warning shot at US warship in Hormuz - Reuters  • IRGC chief says unauthorized Hormuz vessels are ‘ legitimate targets ’  • IRGC says Hormuz rules unchanged, warns non-compliant ships  • IRGC media - Iran re...

          This posting uses the fine summary of the first week of the 2026 NPT Revue Conference by Ray Acheson in Reaching Critical Will . It pulls together statements made by NPT states on the Iran nuclear conundrum and Iran’s rejoinders and ends with Ray Acheson’s jarring commentary on what was missing in those statements. We shall see what this RevCon comes up with on the NPT nuclear nonproliferation pillar, and on the important NPT pillar of nuclear disarmament.            US asserted that Iran is in violation of Article III of the NPT and its IAEA safeguards agreement.            China said that without the authorisation of the Security Council, launching military strikes against the nuclear facilities of other countries and IAEA safeguards constitutes a serious violation of international law. It noted these actions “ under the pretext of non-proliferation trample on the sovereignt...

     Shortly after the 2026 NPT Review Conference started on April 27, Christopher Yeaw, Assistant Secretary for the U.S. Bureau of Arms Control and Nonproliferation, picked a fight with Iran. My guess is that he chose to do that on his own, without senior level authorization. His intervention prompts me to say to him and the Trump administration, you do want Iran to remain in NPT, don’t you?        The President of the Conference had been chosen in advance to be Ambassador Do Hung Viet of Viet Nam. Thirty-four Vice Presidents were proposed by the Eastern European Group, Western Group and Non-Aligned Group. The Non-Aligned Group selected Algeria and others including Iran.       Yeaw, in a ‘right to reply’, told the conference that it was " indisputable that Iran ‌has long demonstrated its contempt for the ⁠non-proliferation commitments of the NPT, " and had refused to cooperate with the U.N. nuclear watchdog to resolve questions abo...

         Excellent reporting today by Reuters, as always, is the source for this blog.           Trump posted on Truth Social that ‌his envoys would arrive in Islamabad on Monday evening, April 20, for negotiations: " We’re offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran. NO MORE MR. NICE GUY! "            Iran's official IRNA news agency reported that Iran rejected the talks: " Iran stated that its absence from the second round of talks stems from what it called Washington's excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant shifts in stance, repeated contradictions, and the ongoing naval blockade, which it considers a breach of the ceasefire. " Iran's chief negotiator, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, said the two sides had made progress but were still far apart o...

During the U.S./Israel war on Iran since February 28, it has been rather quiet on the nuclear front. Only a few, limited bombings of the Natanz and Esfahan sites have been reported. Iranian activity at those sites has been limited, as detected through public satellite imagery. Now that U.S.-Iran talks are starting to sound like negotiation of a so-called deal, it is perhaps worthwhile to resume commentary on the Iran nuclear conundrum.            We will start with ‘unpacking’ a statement by IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi on April 15 in South Korea, and a comment by President Donald Trump on April 16.            Rafael Grossi told reporters in Seoul [Apr 15]: “ Iran has a very ambitious, wide nuclear program so all of that will require the presence of IAEA inspectors. Otherwise, you will not have an agreement. You will have an illusion of an agreement. ” He said that any agreement on nuclear technology “ require...

The Iranian regime is talking itself into thinking that war with the U.S. and Israel is their better way forward under present circumstances, and that it is coming soon. Here is what Iran-knowledgeable commentators published on February 21-22.            Ata Mohammed Tabriz’s article in Iran International, Why war may no longer be the worst outcome for Tehran , made these points:            • [C]onfrontation is as civilizational as it is geopolitical. Resistance, even at high cost, is framed as a test of faith in a larger struggle between opposing moral forces.            • Victory, in this view, depends not solely on material advantage but on steadfast adherence to divine principles. Even loss or sacrifice can be reframed as spiritual triumph.            • [D]iplomacy and confrontation carry risks, but only confrontation preserves the possibility o...