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To War or Not to War, that is the Question

It is no surprise to learn that Mr. Netanyahu has moved forward his next visit to the White House from February 18 to Wednesday, February 11. The commentary on the U.S.-Iran meeting in Oman on February 6 was too optimistic. It sounded like a repeat of Steve Witkoff trying to find a way to a nuclear deal with Iran, which led to Netanyahu attacking Iran in June 2025 to stop such a deal. Now Netanyahu wants the U.S. and Israel to jointly “ mow the grass ” in Iran, focusing on ballistic missiles and killing off the political and military leadership.            Netanyahu is also not happy with Trump’s pushing forward on Phase II of the Gaza peace plan, and Trump’s plan to schedule the first meeting of the Board of Peace in Washington on February 19 to focus on funding of Gaza rebuilding. Netanyahu has not signed up Israel on the Board of Peace, and it will be interesting to see if he attends the first meeting (or somehow succeeds in getting that meeting can...
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The Iran nuclear conundrum continues

Ilan Goldenberg and Nate Swanson, in a January 31, 2026, Foreign Affairs article titled America’s Best Chance to Transform Iran, The Right Way to Deploy Military Threats, Pressure, and Support for the Opposition , included the recommendation that U.S. President Trump ‘ demand that Iran allow International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors back into the country ’.            Why the United States? The Iranian obligation to accept IAEA safeguards on its declared nuclear material arises from its adherence to the Nonproliferation Treat (NPT). The matter of Iran’s compliance with its NPT obligations is dealt with by the IAEA Board of Governors, upon notification by the IAEA Director General based on findings of the IAEA Secretariat, specifically by the Department of Safeguards. If Iran is found by IAEA in noncompliance, the matter is reported to the United Nations Security Council. No individual State has competence to meddle in NPT matters.   ...
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Sooner rather than later

BBC’s reporting today of Trump’s buildup in preparation for attacking Iran makes it clear that strikes are " coming sooner rather than later " [ Stefan Watkins on social media] .           The US has amassed: • 50,000 military personnel, around 10,000 based at al-Udeid Airbase in Qatar, the rest at bases in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates;  • At al-Udeid Air Force Base, the arrival of F-15 fighter jets and refueling tankers, and the arrival of dozens of cargo planes, some of which are believed to be carrying new anti-air defense systems being installed;  • Arrival of US early warning and spy aircraft which were there during Operation Midnight Hammer – including RC-135s, and E-11A BACN and E-3G Sentr; • Drones and P-8 Poseidon spy planes are operating near Iranian airspace;  • The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, is now near Oman, with an air wing of 70 aircraft including the latest F-35 stealth jets, ...
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Safeguards at Iran's bombed nuclear facilities

On Jan 23, 2026, Reuters published the response of Mohammad Eslami, Iran’s atomic chief, to the remark by IAEA DG Rafael Grossi in Davos ⁠on January 20 that the standoff ‌over inspections at bombed facilities at Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan " cannot go on forever ", saying that IAEA has not formally outlined " a specific protocol " ‍for inspecting the damaged facilities: " When a military strike occurs and there are environmental risks, it must be defined and a guideline must be designed ."            Here is a proposed approach.            Iran’s NPT safeguards agreement, based on INFCIRC/153, addresses the current situation where facilities in Iran containing safeguarded nuclear material have been bombed. Involved are special reports by Iran, special inspections by IAEA, and innovative application of safeguards measures.            1. Iran must make special reports to the IAEA (INF...
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IAEA DG Grossi on the Iran nuclear conundrum

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi gave interviews in Davos to Reuters and to Bloomberg about the current situation with the Iran nuclear conundrum. Here is a summary of the reports on the interviews.            In a January 20 Davos interview with David Graham and Francois Murphy of Reuters Grossi said IAEA has inspected all 13 declared nuclear facilities in Iran that were not bombed. Inspections took place until late December, but it was not possible to carry out inspections during the civil unrest.            Grossi said that IAEA has been unable to inspect the three sites that were bombed in June — Natanz, Fordo or Isfahan. Iran has not submitted a special report to the IAEA, as foreseen in Iran’s NPT safeguards agreement, on what happened to those sites and material. It is now seven months since IAEA verified Iran’s stock of highly enriched uranium. Grossi said, “ This cannot go on forever because at some point...
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No nuclear negotiations with Iran now

Richard Nephew, in a panel discussion on Jan 16, 2026, set up by Holly Dagress, said: restarting negotiations on [the Iranian nuclear] issue now would be a mistake.            He asserted that Iran’s ‘ nuclear program remains an existential threat to the United States and the Middle East and will need to be addressed again at some point. ’            He believes that ‘ new talks would likely require granting extensive sanctions relief, and […] it would be difficult to establish what Iran’s nuclear capabilities are after the United States and Israel struck the program last June. ’           But it seems that his main concern is that ‘ engaging in such discussions amid mass repression could give the impression that Washington wants to legitimize a regime whose political legitimacy is irreparably damaged. ’            I think all that is great - the U.S. sh...
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Snapback and Preemptive Action

In the midst of growing protests around Iran, on January 6, 2026, Iran International reported the following two disturbing developments.            The reactivation of pre-2015 United Nations sanctions through the snapback mechanism in September 2025 has proven difficult to circumvent, constraining access to finance, insurance and energy markets. These constraints have translated into economic pressure.            Iran’s newly formed Defense Council warned on January 6 that the country could respond before an attack if it detected clear signs of a threat, amid rising tensions with the United States and Israel: ‘ Any infringement on national interests, interference in internal affairs or action against Iran’s stability will be met with a proportionate, targeted and decisive response... An escalation in threatening language and interventionist conduct that goes beyond verbal posturing may be interpreted as hostile beha...
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Trump’s Threats, Iran’s Response

Keeping fingers crossed on December 29 did not work. President Trump spoke belligerently about further attacks on Iran. What his reaction was to Netanyahu’s Iran 2nd round attack options. i.e., how much he wants US military involved, has not yet been reported.            Iran responded as would be expected, but a new element emerged: to meet the existential threat posed by Netanyahu and Trump, Iran is reported to have started working on chemical and biological weaponry to mate with its missiles.            A sensible voice came from the Kremlin, calling for dialogue rather than military aggression. Here is a summary of what has been reported by Iran International and Al Jazeera.  Trump’s threats: I will knock the hell out of them.            US President Donald Trump said a lot on December 29, starting with this. Asked whether he would support Israel's attack on the Iranian miss...
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Putting the Pieces Together

Reports on December 24 by Iran International and Euronews gave a sobering view that can be put together as follows.  Iran’s position on nuclear may have shifted            Director of US National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told the Senate Intelligence Committee in March " in the past year, we have seen an erosion of a decades-long taboo in Iran on discussing nuclear weapons in public, likely emboldening nuclear weapons advocates within Iran's decision-making apparatus ."            Ali Shamkhani, a top adviser to Khamenei, in October, openly mused about Iran pursuing a nuclear weapon, saying: " now that it has become clear, Iran should have developed this capability for itself."             The 12-day war exposed weaknesses in Iran’s air defenses, while highlighting the limits of its missile arsenal in a prolonged conflict. “ The only true deterrent that could save the Iranian r...
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UN Security Council 10079th Meeting, Dec 23, 2025

This 1:48 hour long meeting should be required viewing by all persons involved or interested in the Iran nuclear conundrum. It is available on the UN website.             The official UN news report summarized the meeting this way: The Security Council’s stance on Iran’s nuclear activities remained divided on the issue, split between those who support the reinstatement of sanctions, and the members who believe the sanctions should be permanently lifted, whilst questioning the legality of the meeting itself .            The headlines of news reports tell a mixed story:  Security Council remains divided over Iran nuclear programme, sanctions stay in place (UN News) Russia, China reject Iran sanctions at Security Council showdown (Iran International)  US, Iran spar over nuclear talks at UN (Reuters)            Government (plus EU) statements strongly called for “ diplomacy ...
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