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Nuclear Issues in Islamabad MOU

It has taken a long time, but we finally have the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Nuclear issues are addressed only in paragraphs 8 and 9 of the 14 paragraphs. Here is my commentary on how the nuclear issues are treated, followed by the full text of the two paragraphs.  Commentary  1. No nuclear weapons . This commitment by Iran is the same as it made by joining the NPT. The NPT commitment has an ‘exit ramp’ through withdrawal from NPT. Will there be a comparable provision in the final deal?  2. Enriched uranium stockpiles . “ Resolve the disposition ” - how that will apply to all the enriched uranium - 60%, 20%, up to 5% - remains to be seen. Iran has committed “ to resolve ”, not to eliminate.  3. Uranium enrichment . Iran has “ agreed to discuss ” “ a satisfactory framework ” for the final deal, in relation to “ Iran’s nuclear needs .” At least formally in the MOU, Iran has not com...
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International Safeguards at the 2026 NPT Review Conference

The four-week NPT Review Conference has taken place and ended May 22, for the third consecutive time, without an agreed Outcome Document. Nevertheless, the drafts of that document are public, starting with the Zero Draft introduced by the Conference President, and four subsequent drafts.           Here is a summary of how four international safeguards topics were dealt with, followed by the draft texts for those topics: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); Compliance and Iran; Additional Protocol; Attacks on nuclear facilities   1. IAEA      While the principal text on the importance of IAEA is standard, it is good that the text did evolve to “ call on all States parties to ensure that IAEA continues to have the necessary political, technical and financial support so that it is able to effectively apply safeguards. ”  2. Compliance and Iran      This bracketed paragraph was largely responsible for the lack of ...
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Iran nuclear conundrum on May 10, 2026

Iran responded on May 10 to a U.S. proposal to end fighting before starting talks on more contentious issues, including Iran's nuclear program. ( Reuters ) Here is what has been reported today on the Iran nuclear conundrum   • Suspending enrichment, dismantling nuclear facilities - WSJ   The Wall Street Journal reported: Iran said it was willing to suspend uranium enrichment for a shorter period than the 20-year moratorium proposed by the United States but rejected dismantling its nuclear facilities.  • Iran's enriched uranium stockpile             Trump says US will get Iran's enriched uranium - Full Measure   President Donald Trump interview with Sharyl Attkisson on the television program Full Measure: The United States would eventually get Iran’s enriched uranium buried under rubble and was monitoring the site. “ We’ll get that at some point... We have it surveilled. I did a thing called Space Force, and they are watchin...
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Headlines tell a story

So much “news” has come out on the first day of Trump’s so-called ‘ Project Freedom ’. It is not possible to know what is real and what is ‘fake’, who is exaggerating and how much. Here is the story that the headlines of the continuing postings by Iran International tell. Most important is the last one: expect Israel to restart massive bombing of Iran within 24 hours. Netanyahu and cohorts get their way: up the escalation ladder Trump will go!  • Iran says Fujairah attack a response to US ' adventurism ' - state media  • Iran threatens UAE with sweeping strikes if it makes any ' unwise ' move  • Iran military official denies US Navy report of boats sunk - state TV  • Iran says no vessels passed Hormuz, rejects US military's claim  • Iran fired warning shot at US warship in Hormuz - Reuters  • IRGC chief says unauthorized Hormuz vessels are ‘ legitimate targets ’  • IRGC says Hormuz rules unchanged, warns non-compliant ships  • IRGC media - Iran re...
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Iran and nuclear nonproliferation in first week of 2026 NPT RevCon

          This posting uses the fine summary of the first week of the 2026 NPT Revue Conference by Ray Acheson in Reaching Critical Will . It pulls together statements made by NPT states on the Iran nuclear conundrum and Iran’s rejoinders and ends with Ray Acheson’s jarring commentary on what was missing in those statements. We shall see what this RevCon comes up with on the NPT nuclear nonproliferation pillar, and on the important NPT pillar of nuclear disarmament.            US asserted that Iran is in violation of Article III of the NPT and its IAEA safeguards agreement.            China said that without the authorisation of the Security Council, launching military strikes against the nuclear facilities of other countries and IAEA safeguards constitutes a serious violation of international law. It noted these actions “ under the pretext of non-proliferation trample on the sovereignt...
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You do want Iran to remain in NPT, don’t you?

     Shortly after the 2026 NPT Review Conference started on April 27, Christopher Yeaw, Assistant Secretary for the U.S. Bureau of Arms Control and Nonproliferation, picked a fight with Iran. My guess is that he chose to do that on his own, without senior level authorization. His intervention prompts me to say to him and the Trump administration, you do want Iran to remain in NPT, don’t you?        The President of the Conference had been chosen in advance to be Ambassador Do Hung Viet of Viet Nam. Thirty-four Vice Presidents were proposed by the Eastern European Group, Western Group and Non-Aligned Group. The Non-Aligned Group selected Algeria and others including Iran.       Yeaw, in a ‘right to reply’, told the conference that it was " indisputable that Iran ‌has long demonstrated its contempt for the ⁠non-proliferation commitments of the NPT, " and had refused to cooperate with the U.N. nuclear watchdog to resolve questions abo...
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If you have the cards, it’s time to play hardball

         Excellent reporting today by Reuters, as always, is the source for this blog.           Trump posted on Truth Social that ‌his envoys would arrive in Islamabad on Monday evening, April 20, for negotiations: " We’re offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran. NO MORE MR. NICE GUY! "            Iran's official IRNA news agency reported that Iran rejected the talks: " Iran stated that its absence from the second round of talks stems from what it called Washington's excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant shifts in stance, repeated contradictions, and the ongoing naval blockade, which it considers a breach of the ceasefire. " Iran's chief negotiator, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, said the two sides had made progress but were still far apart o...
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Unpacking IAEA DG Grossi and US President Trump statements

During the U.S./Israel war on Iran since February 28, it has been rather quiet on the nuclear front. Only a few, limited bombings of the Natanz and Esfahan sites have been reported. Iranian activity at those sites has been limited, as detected through public satellite imagery. Now that U.S.-Iran talks are starting to sound like negotiation of a so-called deal, it is perhaps worthwhile to resume commentary on the Iran nuclear conundrum.            We will start with ‘unpacking’ a statement by IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi on April 15 in South Korea, and a comment by President Donald Trump on April 16.            Rafael Grossi told reporters in Seoul [Apr 15]: “ Iran has a very ambitious, wide nuclear program so all of that will require the presence of IAEA inspectors. Otherwise, you will not have an agreement. You will have an illusion of an agreement. ” He said that any agreement on nuclear technology “ require...
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Is war Iran’s better option?

The Iranian regime is talking itself into thinking that war with the U.S. and Israel is their better way forward under present circumstances, and that it is coming soon. Here is what Iran-knowledgeable commentators published on February 21-22.            Ata Mohammed Tabriz’s article in Iran International, Why war may no longer be the worst outcome for Tehran , made these points:            • [C]onfrontation is as civilizational as it is geopolitical. Resistance, even at high cost, is framed as a test of faith in a larger struggle between opposing moral forces.            • Victory, in this view, depends not solely on material advantage but on steadfast adherence to divine principles. Even loss or sacrifice can be reframed as spiritual triumph.            • [D]iplomacy and confrontation carry risks, but only confrontation preserves the possibility o...
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IAEA DG Grossi and Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi made public statements about Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile in an interview with the French TF1 published on February 18, 2026. Here is the relevant part of his interview.            [L]a plupart du matériel que l'Iran avait accumulé jusqu'au mois de juin de l'année dernière, malgré    les bombardements, malgré les attaques, est toujours là, dans la plus grande quantité, où il se trouvait         au moment des attaques. Et donc, il y a une partie qui est peut-être moins accessible, mais le matériel,         est toujours là. Donc, d'un point de vue de non-prolifération, le matériel est toujours là.          { O]n sait exactement où le matériel était stocké. Et si on n'a pas pu accéder aux installations depuis la guerre, on a fait une évaluation assez exacte des dégâts. Et on sait que le matériel était là et qu'il était p rotégé. Do...
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