Pulling together the massive crisis reporting of the past several days makes it not difficult to see what is going to happen with the U.S. and Iran. Here are summarized highlights.  President Trump  • The President has set some red lines that the Iranians are not yet willing to actually acknowledge.  • Trump on February 13 said that “ regime change ” in Iran “ would be the best thing that could happen .”  • “ The boss is getting fed up…there is 90% chance we see kinetic action in the next few weeks .”  • US president Donald Trump said on February 18 “ Should Iran decide not to make a Deal, it may be necessary for the United States to use Diego Garcia, and the Airfield located in Fairford, in order to eradicate a potential attack by a highly unstable and dangerous Regime — An attack that would potentially be made on the United Kingdom, as well as other friendly Countries. ”  Vice President JD Vance  • US Vice President JD Vance said “ We would very much...

Iran International reported on Jan 28, 2026, that Mohammad Eslami, Iran’s nuclear chief, said on January 28 that if Iran’s nuclear sites have been bombed and destroyed, the IAEA has no grounds to demand continued oversight. He said Iran had not breached its NPT commitments and the IAEA should act strictly within its statutory mandate.          I AEA’s mandate under Iran’s NPT safeguards agreement is to verify the declared nuclear material in the State. The last verification by IAEA before the bombings by Israel started on June 13, 2025, were:            • 441 kg 60%-U235 - most at Fordow, a small amount at above ground facility at Natanz;            • 184 kg 20%-U235 - split between above ground Natanz and Fordow;            • 6,024 kg up to 5%-U235 - around half at Natanz underground, and half at Fordow.            Fo...

Iran International reported on Feb 9 that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said once again on Sunday, Feb 8: “ Zero enrichment can never be accepted by us .” Put more precisely, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Sunday, Feb 8, that Tehran wanted its rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to be respected.            What are NPT States’ rights under NPT?            Michael Crowley, in the New York Times on Feb 6, 2026, presented the opinion of Gary Samore, Brandeis University, on the issue of Iran’s ‘right’ to enrich Uranium under the NPT:             “ The question hinges on intentionality. If you believe their program is purely peaceful, then they have a legitimate claim to a right to enrich. If you think the Iranian enrichment program is just a  c over to build up to a nuclear weapon option, then they don’t have that right. ”   ...

It is no surprise to learn that Mr. Netanyahu has moved forward his next visit to the White House from February 18 to Wednesday, February 11. The commentary on the U.S.-Iran meeting in Oman on February 6 was too optimistic. It sounded like a repeat of Steve Witkoff trying to find a way to a nuclear deal with Iran, which led to Netanyahu attacking Iran in June 2025 to stop such a deal. Now Netanyahu wants the U.S. and Israel to jointly “ mow the grass ” in Iran, focusing on ballistic missiles and killing off the political and military leadership.            Netanyahu is also not happy with Trump’s pushing forward on Phase II of the Gaza peace plan, and Trump’s plan to schedule the first meeting of the Board of Peace in Washington on February 19 to focus on funding of Gaza rebuilding. Netanyahu has not signed up Israel on the Board of Peace, and it will be interesting to see if he attends the first meeting (or somehow succeeds in getting that meeting can...

Ilan Goldenberg and Nate Swanson, in a January 31, 2026, Foreign Affairs article titled America’s Best Chance to Transform Iran, The Right Way to Deploy Military Threats, Pressure, and Support for the Opposition , included the recommendation that U.S. President Trump ‘ demand that Iran allow International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors back into the country ’.            Why the United States? The Iranian obligation to accept IAEA safeguards on its declared nuclear material arises from its adherence to the Nonproliferation Treat (NPT). The matter of Iran’s compliance with its NPT obligations is dealt with by the IAEA Board of Governors, upon notification by the IAEA Director General based on findings of the IAEA Secretariat, specifically by the Department of Safeguards. If Iran is found by IAEA in noncompliance, the matter is reported to the United Nations Security Council. No individual State has competence to meddle in NPT matters.   ...

BBC’s reporting today of Trump’s buildup in preparation for attacking Iran makes it clear that strikes are " coming sooner rather than later " [ Stefan Watkins on social media] .           The US has amassed: • 50,000 military personnel, around 10,000 based at al-Udeid Airbase in Qatar, the rest at bases in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates;  • At al-Udeid Air Force Base, the arrival of F-15 fighter jets and refueling tankers, and the arrival of dozens of cargo planes, some of which are believed to be carrying new anti-air defense systems being installed;  • Arrival of US early warning and spy aircraft which were there during Operation Midnight Hammer – including RC-135s, and E-11A BACN and E-3G Sentr; • Drones and P-8 Poseidon spy planes are operating near Iranian airspace;  • The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, is now near Oman, with an air wing of 70 aircraft including the latest F-35 stealth jets, ...

On Jan 23, 2026, Reuters published the response of Mohammad Eslami, Iran’s atomic chief, to the remark by IAEA DG Rafael Grossi in Davos ⁠on January 20 that the standoff ‌over inspections at bombed facilities at Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan " cannot go on forever ", saying that IAEA has not formally outlined " a specific protocol " ‍for inspecting the damaged facilities: " When a military strike occurs and there are environmental risks, it must be defined and a guideline must be designed ."            Here is a proposed approach.            Iran’s NPT safeguards agreement, based on INFCIRC/153, addresses the current situation where facilities in Iran containing safeguarded nuclear material have been bombed. Involved are special reports by Iran, special inspections by IAEA, and innovative application of safeguards measures.            1. Iran must make special reports to the IAEA (INF...

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi gave interviews in Davos to Reuters and to Bloomberg about the current situation with the Iran nuclear conundrum. Here is a summary of the reports on the interviews.            In a January 20 Davos interview with David Graham and Francois Murphy of Reuters Grossi said IAEA has inspected all 13 declared nuclear facilities in Iran that were not bombed. Inspections took place until late December, but it was not possible to carry out inspections during the civil unrest.            Grossi said that IAEA has been unable to inspect the three sites that were bombed in June — Natanz, Fordo or Isfahan. Iran has not submitted a special report to the IAEA, as foreseen in Iran’s NPT safeguards agreement, on what happened to those sites and material. It is now seven months since IAEA verified Iran’s stock of highly enriched uranium. Grossi said, “ This cannot go on forever because at some point...

Richard Nephew, in a panel discussion on Jan 16, 2026, set up by Holly Dagress, said: restarting negotiations on [the Iranian nuclear] issue now would be a mistake.            He asserted that Iran’s ‘ nuclear program remains an existential threat to the United States and the Middle East and will need to be addressed again at some point. ’            He believes that ‘ new talks would likely require granting extensive sanctions relief, and […] it would be difficult to establish what Iran’s nuclear capabilities are after the United States and Israel struck the program last June. ’           But it seems that his main concern is that ‘ engaging in such discussions amid mass repression could give the impression that Washington wants to legitimize a regime whose political legitimacy is irreparably damaged. ’            I think all that is great - the U.S. sh...