Pulling together the massive crisis reporting of the past several days makes it not difficult to see what is going to happen with the U.S. and Iran. Here are summarized highlights.
President Trump
• The President has set some red lines that the Iranians are not yet willing to actually acknowledge.
• Trump on February 13 said that “regime change” in Iran “would be the best thing that could happen.”
• “The boss is getting fed up…there is 90% chance we see kinetic action in the next few weeks.”
• US president Donald Trump said on February 18 “Should Iran decide not to make a Deal, it may be necessary for the United States to use Diego Garcia, and the Airfield located in Fairford, in order to eradicate a potential attack by a highly unstable and dangerous Regime — An attack that would potentially be made on the United Kingdom, as well as other friendly Countries.”
Vice President JD Vance
• US Vice President JD Vance said “We would very much like, as the President has said, to resolve this through a conversation and a diplomatic negotiation, but the President has all options on the table…but of course, the president reserves the ability to say when he thinks that diplomacy has reached its natural end…that will be the President's call."
War timing and objective
• Analysts predict that Donald Trump is preparing a sustained military campaign against Iran…there was now a 90 per cent chance of war in the coming weeks. An Israeli former intelligence chief said he believed the strike would take place in a “matter of days.”
• Mr. Trump is under pressure from Israel to demand restrictions on Tehran’s ballistic missile programme and its support for regional terror groups…advocating for a heavy attack aimed at toppling the Islamic Republic.
• Any conflict [will] resemble a full-scale war … the operation could threaten the survival of Iran’s clerical regime.
• “It is unknown what impact this will have. It could coerce a change of policy by the regime, and strike across its missile programs. But we don’t know if it can force the regime out of power…”
Military Buildup
• The nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford is sailing in the Atlantic and heading toward the Strait of Gibraltar… [as] reported on February 17, to join the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group in the region.
• Once the second carrier arrived, the force would be capable of executing hundreds of air sorties per day for weeks, and delivering a high rate of Tomahawk missile strikes.
• More than 50 American fighter jets…were moved to the region in the 24 hours before February 17 night…dozens of eastward flights of air-to-air refueling tankers have also been tracked…“anything that can fly or refuel” appeared to be moving to the region.
• On February 16, there were at least six flights of the Stratotankers headed towards the Middle East, with a further eight recorded on Tuesday…nearly 20 US F-35 combat aircraft took off from RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk on February 16 headed to the Middle East, with many landing in southern Israel…[others] in Jordan and Crete.
• Fast jets, such as the F-16s and F-35s, were likely to be used to clear the way to the main targets… “They are there to kick the door in, what we call suppression of enemy air defenses”… once the path was cleared, the heavy bombers were likely to do most of the damage. These are the B-2 “stealth” bombers as well as B-52s…US could deploy them directly to Iran from bases on the North American continent, Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, or Okinawa in Japan.
• Washington could also use the dozens of seaborne and land-based fighter aircraft it is moving to the Middle East…F-15s in the region have been photographed apparently fitted out to shoot down multiple drones.
• These military assets would enable a weeks-long campaign against the Iranian regime, and not just against targets related to its nuclear programme.
Israel
• The White House has signaled to Israel that nuclear talks with Iran have reached their limit and that it will be difficult to advance further diplomatically because Tehran will not agree to President Donald Trump’s demands…Israeli officials believe Trump wants a military strike, as do those around him, but assess he must first demonstrate that diplomatic options were fully exhausted in order to legitimize any potential action.
• The Israeli government, which is pushing for a broader strike targeting Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, as well as regime change, is preparing for a scenario of war within days.
• Former Israeli military intelligence chief Amos Yadlin said “We are much closer than we were before,” adding that a superpower does not go to war in a matter of days and that a diplomatic path must first be exhausted.
• Former Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant said on February 17 that “No deal will hold without first degrading Tehran’s capabilities…If military action is coming, it will most likely need to conclude before summer…whether internal political change comes is ultimately a decision for the Iranian people, though external action may help create the conditions for it. Stripping the regime of its ability to threaten its neighbors is a realistic objective that would reshape the balance of power in the Middle East.”
Iran negotiating and preparing
• [After the Geneva talks,] the Iranians said they would come back in the next two weeks with detailed proposals.
• “We’re expecting the Iranians to lash out, because at that stage it’s about regime survival.”
• The Isfahan complex … bombed by the United States in June…includes an underground area where diplomats say much of Iran's enriched uranium has been stored. A February 10 satellite image shows all three tunnel entrances "completely buried" to dampen airstrikes and make ground access in a special forces raid to seize or destroy high enriched uranium inside difficult.
• Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said on February 18 at a meeting with Russian Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev: “In all the meetings held, important and strategic decisions have been made that secure the shared interests of the two countries and the two nations and have opened new horizons for relations between Tehran and Moscow.”
• This week Iran was joined by Russia and China in deploying naval vessels for a joint exercise in the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. negotiation team
• Administration officials have long defended Witkoff and Kushner’s roles, citing their skills as dealmakers, the trust Trump puts in them, and the failings over the years of more traditional diplomatic approaches.
• Mohanad Hajj-Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut said: “Having a team of Witkoff and Kushner tasked with resolving all the world’s problems is, frankly, a shocking reality”… the two… lack the depth of knowledge and experience to go up against veteran negotiators like Araqchi and their Russian interlocutors and they were in over their heads in such complicated conflicts.
Other Interested Parties
• Gulf Arab states strongly lobbied against Mr. Trump bombing Tehran in January….the two US seaborne air wings would give the White House the flexibility to continue a campaign in the face of objections from Arab partners, some of whom host US air bases.
• Mai Sato, UN Special Rapporteur on human rights, said “I am very critical of any kind of military action without the approval of the UN Security Council. When there has been military action elsewhere, it has not provided clear solutions. I do not see military action as a magic solution to resolve the problems in Iran."
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