The IAEA has published part of its annual report on the international safeguards it carried out in 2025. (The entire confidential report is distributed to governments,)  In it there is a nice summary of IAEA's interactions with Iran in 2025. It explains that Iran was declared to be in noncompliance with its NPT safeguards agreement with IAEA and has not remedied that noncompliance, and that lack of information and access to the bombed nuclear enrichment facilities constitutes a "proliferation concern."  Here it is.  A. Safeguards Statement for 2025           In 2025, safeguards were applied for 190 States with safeguards agreements in force with the Agency. Forty-four States had comprehensive safeguards agreements in force, but no additional protocols in force.  Islamic Republic of Iran            For one State [ Iran] , the Secretariat found no indication of the diversion of declared nuclear material ...

     Reuters reported the following after the US bragged about hitting 80 targets in Iran, which included killing two fishermen and blowing up two railway bridges:                 In a letter to the United Nations Security Council on Wednesday, Iran's mission at the UN accused   the United States of "blatant violation of the Charter of the United Nations and its international                obligations" and said its attacks violated the memorandum of understanding signed by the two                     countries.                 A spokesperson for parliament's National Security Commission had said options for retaliation ⁠    included withdrawing from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), changing Iran's nuclear         doctri...

President Trump, once again ignoring his commitment in paragraph 1 of the Islamabad MOU, posted on June 28 a threat of use of force against Iran. But this time he seems to be threatening a nuclear attack, in order to accomplish his threat that “ the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist !”  Here is President Trump’s full threat.                      " United States aircraft just struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations, and coastal radar sites, for violating the Cease Fire Agreement, AGAIN! It is very possible that they will never learn! There may come a point when we are no longer able to be reasonable, and will be forced to militarily complete the job that we very successfully started. If that happens, the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist! " [ Truth Social]                  About an hour after Trump's post, Kuwait's army said its air d...

     U.S. President Donald Trump said on June 23 that Iran had agreed to nuclear inspections into "infinity," while Tehran said it had made no such concession in negotiations, raising questions about the viability of their fragile peace deal. [Reuters]            What our government officials and ‘experts’, and therefore journalists, continue to say or write about the Iran nuclear situation is quite often off-base. Is it too much to ask them to absorb the following nuclear nonproliferation fundamentals?            It starts with the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) of 1970. Iran is one of almost two hundred countries whose status under the NPT is a non-nuclear weapon state (NNWS). (Five states are nuclear weapon states (NWS)). When a NNWS adhered to NPT, it committed to the following:            - Not to “manufacture or otherwise acquire nuclear weapons” (Article II);...

Paragraph 1 of the Islamabad MOU, signed by President Donald Trump at Versailles a few days ago, includes:            1 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran … undertake … to r efrain from the threat or use of force against each other…       The start of negotiations in Switzerland today seemed to be going well, with Vice President Vance telling reporters President Trump had:                 " asked us to turn over a new leaf to transform our relationship with the people of Iran ".       But then, on Sunday, June 21, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social:                 " Iran must immediately stop their highly paid PROXIES in ‌Lebanon ⁠from causing trouble. If they don’t, ⁠we’ll hit Iran very hard again, just ⁠like we did last ⁠week, only harder!! !"       Fur...

It has taken a long time, but we finally have the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Nuclear issues are addressed only in paragraphs 8 and 9 of the 14 paragraphs. Here is my commentary on how the nuclear issues are treated, followed by the full text of the two paragraphs.  Commentary  1. No nuclear weapons . This commitment by Iran is the same as it made by joining the NPT. The NPT commitment has an ‘exit ramp’ through withdrawal from NPT. Will there be a comparable provision in the final deal?  2. Enriched uranium stockpiles . “ Resolve the disposition ” - how that will apply to all the enriched uranium - 60%, 20%, up to 5% - remains to be seen. Iran has committed “ to resolve ”, not to eliminate.  3. Uranium enrichment . Iran has “ agreed to discuss ” “ a satisfactory framework ” for the final deal, in relation to “ Iran’s nuclear needs .” At least formally in the MOU, Iran has not com...

The four-week NPT Review Conference has taken place and ended May 22, for the third consecutive time, without an agreed Outcome Document. Nevertheless, the drafts of that document are public, starting with the Zero Draft introduced by the Conference President, and four subsequent drafts.           Here is a summary of how four international safeguards topics were dealt with, followed by the draft texts for those topics: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); Compliance and Iran; Additional Protocol; Attacks on nuclear facilities   1. IAEA      While the principal text on the importance of IAEA is standard, it is good that the text did evolve to “ call on all States parties to ensure that IAEA continues to have the necessary political, technical and financial support so that it is able to effectively apply safeguards. ”  2. Compliance and Iran      This bracketed paragraph was largely responsible for the lack of ...

Iran responded on May 10 to a U.S. proposal to end fighting before starting talks on more contentious issues, including Iran's nuclear program. ( Reuters ) Here is what has been reported today on the Iran nuclear conundrum   • Suspending enrichment, dismantling nuclear facilities - WSJ   The Wall Street Journal reported: Iran said it was willing to suspend uranium enrichment for a shorter period than the 20-year moratorium proposed by the United States but rejected dismantling its nuclear facilities.  • Iran's enriched uranium stockpile             Trump says US will get Iran's enriched uranium - Full Measure   President Donald Trump interview with Sharyl Attkisson on the television program Full Measure: The United States would eventually get Iran’s enriched uranium buried under rubble and was monitoring the site. “ We’ll get that at some point... We have it surveilled. I did a thing called Space Force, and they are watchin...

So much “news” has come out on the first day of Trump’s so-called ‘ Project Freedom ’. It is not possible to know what is real and what is ‘fake’, who is exaggerating and how much. Here is the story that the headlines of the continuing postings by Iran International tell. Most important is the last one: expect Israel to restart massive bombing of Iran within 24 hours. Netanyahu and cohorts get their way: up the escalation ladder Trump will go!  • Iran says Fujairah attack a response to US ' adventurism ' - state media  • Iran threatens UAE with sweeping strikes if it makes any ' unwise ' move  • Iran military official denies US Navy report of boats sunk - state TV  • Iran says no vessels passed Hormuz, rejects US military's claim  • Iran fired warning shot at US warship in Hormuz - Reuters  • IRGC chief says unauthorized Hormuz vessels are ‘ legitimate targets ’  • IRGC says Hormuz rules unchanged, warns non-compliant ships  • IRGC media - Iran re...

          This posting uses the fine summary of the first week of the 2026 NPT Revue Conference by Ray Acheson in Reaching Critical Will . It pulls together statements made by NPT states on the Iran nuclear conundrum and Iran’s rejoinders and ends with Ray Acheson’s jarring commentary on what was missing in those statements. We shall see what this RevCon comes up with on the NPT nuclear nonproliferation pillar, and on the important NPT pillar of nuclear disarmament.            US asserted that Iran is in violation of Article III of the NPT and its IAEA safeguards agreement.            China said that without the authorisation of the Security Council, launching military strikes against the nuclear facilities of other countries and IAEA safeguards constitutes a serious violation of international law. It noted these actions “ under the pretext of non-proliferation trample on the sovereignt...

     Shortly after the 2026 NPT Review Conference started on April 27, Christopher Yeaw, Assistant Secretary for the U.S. Bureau of Arms Control and Nonproliferation, picked a fight with Iran. My guess is that he chose to do that on his own, without senior level authorization. His intervention prompts me to say to him and the Trump administration, you do want Iran to remain in NPT, don’t you?        The President of the Conference had been chosen in advance to be Ambassador Do Hung Viet of Viet Nam. Thirty-four Vice Presidents were proposed by the Eastern European Group, Western Group and Non-Aligned Group. The Non-Aligned Group selected Algeria and others including Iran.       Yeaw, in a ‘right to reply’, told the conference that it was " indisputable that Iran ‌has long demonstrated its contempt for the ⁠non-proliferation commitments of the NPT, " and had refused to cooperate with the U.N. nuclear watchdog to resolve questions abo...

         Excellent reporting today by Reuters, as always, is the source for this blog.           Trump posted on Truth Social that ‌his envoys would arrive in Islamabad on Monday evening, April 20, for negotiations: " We’re offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran. NO MORE MR. NICE GUY! "            Iran's official IRNA news agency reported that Iran rejected the talks: " Iran stated that its absence from the second round of talks stems from what it called Washington's excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant shifts in stance, repeated contradictions, and the ongoing naval blockade, which it considers a breach of the ceasefire. " Iran's chief negotiator, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, said the two sides had made progress but were still far apart o...

During the U.S./Israel war on Iran since February 28, it has been rather quiet on the nuclear front. Only a few, limited bombings of the Natanz and Esfahan sites have been reported. Iranian activity at those sites has been limited, as detected through public satellite imagery. Now that U.S.-Iran talks are starting to sound like negotiation of a so-called deal, it is perhaps worthwhile to resume commentary on the Iran nuclear conundrum.            We will start with ‘unpacking’ a statement by IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi on April 15 in South Korea, and a comment by President Donald Trump on April 16.            Rafael Grossi told reporters in Seoul [Apr 15]: “ Iran has a very ambitious, wide nuclear program so all of that will require the presence of IAEA inspectors. Otherwise, you will not have an agreement. You will have an illusion of an agreement. ” He said that any agreement on nuclear technology “ require...

The Iranian regime is talking itself into thinking that war with the U.S. and Israel is their better way forward under present circumstances, and that it is coming soon. Here is what Iran-knowledgeable commentators published on February 21-22.            Ata Mohammed Tabriz’s article in Iran International, Why war may no longer be the worst outcome for Tehran , made these points:            • [C]onfrontation is as civilizational as it is geopolitical. Resistance, even at high cost, is framed as a test of faith in a larger struggle between opposing moral forces.            • Victory, in this view, depends not solely on material advantage but on steadfast adherence to divine principles. Even loss or sacrifice can be reframed as spiritual triumph.            • [D]iplomacy and confrontation carry risks, but only confrontation preserves the possibility o...

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi made public statements about Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile in an interview with the French TF1 published on February 18, 2026. Here is the relevant part of his interview.            [L]a plupart du matériel que l'Iran avait accumulé jusqu'au mois de juin de l'année dernière, malgré    les bombardements, malgré les attaques, est toujours là, dans la plus grande quantité, où il se trouvait         au moment des attaques. Et donc, il y a une partie qui est peut-être moins accessible, mais le matériel,         est toujours là. Donc, d'un point de vue de non-prolifération, le matériel est toujours là.          { O]n sait exactement où le matériel était stocké. Et si on n'a pas pu accéder aux installations depuis la guerre, on a fait une évaluation assez exacte des dégâts. Et on sait que le matériel était là et qu'il était p rotégé. Do...

Pulling together the massive crisis reporting of the past several days makes it not difficult to see what is going to happen with the U.S. and Iran. Here are summarized highlights.  President Trump  • The President has set some red lines that the Iranians are not yet willing to actually acknowledge.  • Trump on February 13 said that “ regime change ” in Iran “ would be the best thing that could happen .”  • “ The boss is getting fed up…there is 90% chance we see kinetic action in the next few weeks .”  • US president Donald Trump said on February 18 “ Should Iran decide not to make a Deal, it may be necessary for the United States to use Diego Garcia, and the Airfield located in Fairford, in order to eradicate a potential attack by a highly unstable and dangerous Regime — An attack that would potentially be made on the United Kingdom, as well as other friendly Countries. ”  Vice President JD Vance  • US Vice President JD Vance said “ We would very much...

Iran International reported on Jan 28, 2026, that Mohammad Eslami, Iran’s nuclear chief, said on January 28 that if Iran’s nuclear sites have been bombed and destroyed, the IAEA has no grounds to demand continued oversight. He said Iran had not breached its NPT commitments and the IAEA should act strictly within its statutory mandate.          I AEA’s mandate under Iran’s NPT safeguards agreement is to verify the declared nuclear material in the State. The last verification by IAEA before the bombings by Israel started on June 13, 2025, were:            • 441 kg 60%-U235 - most at Fordow, a small amount at above ground facility at Natanz;            • 184 kg 20%-U235 - split between above ground Natanz and Fordow;            • 6,024 kg up to 5%-U235 - around half at Natanz underground, and half at Fordow.            Fo...

Iran International reported on Feb 9 that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said once again on Sunday, Feb 8: “ Zero enrichment can never be accepted by us .” Put more precisely, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Sunday, Feb 8, that Tehran wanted its rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to be respected.            What are NPT States’ rights under NPT?            Michael Crowley, in the New York Times on Feb 6, 2026, presented the opinion of Gary Samore, Brandeis University, on the issue of Iran’s ‘right’ to enrich Uranium under the NPT:             “ The question hinges on intentionality. If you believe their program is purely peaceful, then they have a legitimate claim to a right to enrich. If you think the Iranian enrichment program is just a  c over to build up to a nuclear weapon option, then they don’t have that right. ”   ...

It is no surprise to learn that Mr. Netanyahu has moved forward his next visit to the White House from February 18 to Wednesday, February 11. The commentary on the U.S.-Iran meeting in Oman on February 6 was too optimistic. It sounded like a repeat of Steve Witkoff trying to find a way to a nuclear deal with Iran, which led to Netanyahu attacking Iran in June 2025 to stop such a deal. Now Netanyahu wants the U.S. and Israel to jointly “ mow the grass ” in Iran, focusing on ballistic missiles and killing off the political and military leadership.            Netanyahu is also not happy with Trump’s pushing forward on Phase II of the Gaza peace plan, and Trump’s plan to schedule the first meeting of the Board of Peace in Washington on February 19 to focus on funding of Gaza rebuilding. Netanyahu has not signed up Israel on the Board of Peace, and it will be interesting to see if he attends the first meeting (or somehow succeeds in getting that meeting can...

Ilan Goldenberg and Nate Swanson, in a January 31, 2026, Foreign Affairs article titled America’s Best Chance to Transform Iran, The Right Way to Deploy Military Threats, Pressure, and Support for the Opposition , included the recommendation that U.S. President Trump ‘ demand that Iran allow International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors back into the country ’.            Why the United States? The Iranian obligation to accept IAEA safeguards on its declared nuclear material arises from its adherence to the Nonproliferation Treat (NPT). The matter of Iran’s compliance with its NPT obligations is dealt with by the IAEA Board of Governors, upon notification by the IAEA Director General based on findings of the IAEA Secretariat, specifically by the Department of Safeguards. If Iran is found by IAEA in noncompliance, the matter is reported to the United Nations Security Council. No individual State has competence to meddle in NPT matters.   ...

BBC’s reporting today of Trump’s buildup in preparation for attacking Iran makes it clear that strikes are " coming sooner rather than later " [ Stefan Watkins on social media] .           The US has amassed: • 50,000 military personnel, around 10,000 based at al-Udeid Airbase in Qatar, the rest at bases in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates;  • At al-Udeid Air Force Base, the arrival of F-15 fighter jets and refueling tankers, and the arrival of dozens of cargo planes, some of which are believed to be carrying new anti-air defense systems being installed;  • Arrival of US early warning and spy aircraft which were there during Operation Midnight Hammer – including RC-135s, and E-11A BACN and E-3G Sentr; • Drones and P-8 Poseidon spy planes are operating near Iranian airspace;  • The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, is now near Oman, with an air wing of 70 aircraft including the latest F-35 stealth jets, ...

On Jan 23, 2026, Reuters published the response of Mohammad Eslami, Iran’s atomic chief, to the remark by IAEA DG Rafael Grossi in Davos ⁠on January 20 that the standoff ‌over inspections at bombed facilities at Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan " cannot go on forever ", saying that IAEA has not formally outlined " a specific protocol " ‍for inspecting the damaged facilities: " When a military strike occurs and there are environmental risks, it must be defined and a guideline must be designed ."            Here is a proposed approach.            Iran’s NPT safeguards agreement, based on INFCIRC/153, addresses the current situation where facilities in Iran containing safeguarded nuclear material have been bombed. Involved are special reports by Iran, special inspections by IAEA, and innovative application of safeguards measures.            1. Iran must make special reports to the IAEA (INF...

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi gave interviews in Davos to Reuters and to Bloomberg about the current situation with the Iran nuclear conundrum. Here is a summary of the reports on the interviews.            In a January 20 Davos interview with David Graham and Francois Murphy of Reuters Grossi said IAEA has inspected all 13 declared nuclear facilities in Iran that were not bombed. Inspections took place until late December, but it was not possible to carry out inspections during the civil unrest.            Grossi said that IAEA has been unable to inspect the three sites that were bombed in June — Natanz, Fordo or Isfahan. Iran has not submitted a special report to the IAEA, as foreseen in Iran’s NPT safeguards agreement, on what happened to those sites and material. It is now seven months since IAEA verified Iran’s stock of highly enriched uranium. Grossi said, “ This cannot go on forever because at some point...