Skip to main content

U.S. restates its position on Iran

If it wasn’t already clear enough, I will restate the United States’ position on Iran.’ So says the U.S. National Statement at the 2025 IAEA General Conference, given today by US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, who presented himself as a lifelong energy entrepreneur. That statement said the following about the Iran nuclear conundrum, in the 14th of the 16 paragraphs. 
        Iran’s nuclear weapons pathway, including all enrichment and reprocessing capabilities, must be completely dismantled. Iran must fully cooperate with the IAEA, abide by its safeguards obligations, and provide the IAEA with unhindered access to all sites of concern. Then, and only then, we would look forward to working with Iran to rejoin the world in global trade, bringing opportunity and prosperity to the Iranian people. 
        So that is the U.S. position on Iran, halfway through the 30-day ‘snapback’ mechanism period. Missing is any indication of whether or when the U.S. intends to talk with Iran. Restarting U.S.-Iran talks is one of the three conditions necessary for the E3 to step back from reactivating UNSC sanctions on September 27 and accept an extension of RES/2231 of up to 6 months, to give time for at least an interim deal to be worked out between Iran and the U.S. 
        Will the E3 conclude that the U.S. conditions as stated by Mr. Wright have no chance of being met, so Iran-U.S. talks would not succeed, and the E3 decides to play hardball and have UNSC sanctions ‘snapback’ in two weeks? 
        The well publicized results would be that Iran ends diplomatic contacts with the E3, stops working with IAEA on NPT verification procedures, and threatens to withdraw from NPT if it is attacked again by Israel and the U.S. And on October 18, UNSC/RES/2231 (2015) will terminate and JCPOA will also terminate. Mr. Trump would certainly tweet triumphantly about that! 
        Or will E3 decide to play softball instead, back off ‘snapback’ and support the 6-month extension? Can we count on the U.S. to play a determining role in the next two weeks? If so, what will it do? Unpredictable. Hopefully, Russia and China will step up to the plate and hit a home run.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

‘New war with Israel at any moment’, ‘still digging through rubble’

The news about Iran has taken an ominous tone in the last couple days. Here is some reporting and commentary.  Newsweek on August 18, 2025, reported that Yahya Rahim Safavi, senior military adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, said ‘ We are not in a ceasefire; we are in a stage of war. No protocol, regulation, or agreement has been written between us and the U.S. or Israel. A new war with Israel could break out at any moment .’  Yonah Jeremy Bob commented in The Jerusalem Post on August 19, 2025, that ‘ Khamenei can either “drink from the poisoned chalice” of diplomatic concessions … or face more airstrikes, possibly next time some targeting him directly ’.   Bob also noted that ‘ right now Iran is still digging through rubbl e’. The U.S. attacked Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan on June 22. Two months of digging. No surprise that there has been no public news about that.

Assessing possible outcomes of the snapback mechanism

The initiation by the E3 of the 30-day snapback mechanism in the UN Security Council makes everything more difficult and there is great uncertainty about the outcome. Will it be peaceful with a new nuclear deal with Iran, negotiated by the U.S., endorsed by the UNSC and verified by IAEA, or will Iran withdraw from NPT with further military action by Israel and the U.S.?                 To perhaps shed a little light on what the outcome will be, here is my analysis of how the players - Iran, U.S. and E3 - may be assessing the acceptability of the range of outcomes. Four levels of acceptability were used: 1 Fully acceptable; 2 Less acceptable; 3 Just acceptable; and 4 Not acceptable. Four near term 30-day outcomes are listed, and two optimistic outcomes with an interim U.S.-Iran agreement reached within a 6-month extension.                 For the 30-day near term, the best outcome would b...

‘Making nuclear fuel’ under the NPT

It is with some hesitation that I take issue with the latest publication of the renowned Henry Sokolski and Sharon Squassoni on August 15 in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, titled: “ Actually, the NPT doesn’t guarantee a right to make nuclear fuel .”  But someone should defend the IAEA and international safeguards! Here are points in question.            ‘ The [NPT] treaty was designed to prevent dangerous bombmaking activitie s.’  NPT is far more complex than that. It is common to state the three pillars of NPT: nuclear disarmament; nuclear nonproliferation; and peaceful uses of nuclear technology. Nonproliferation involves the commitment of non-nuclear states not to pursue nuclear weapons and to accept IAEA inspection to confirm that commitment is being followed. Perhaps Sokolsky intends to refer to INFCIRC/153, which lays out how IAEA and the state cooperate to carry out that confirmation. If so, INFCIRC/153 is not designed to ‘prevent’...