Trita Parsi is right (see September 21 blog). The E3 are using Iran as a pawn in their geopolitical maneuvering. Countering Russia and keeping U.S. support are their big concerns. And so, while I predicted correctly the first two UN Security Council votes on ‘snapback’, my hoped for third vote to extend RES/2231 did not take place.
To recall, the first vote, on September 19, was the required one to permanently terminate UNSC sanctions and it failed as expected (4 Yes/9 No/2 Abstain). The second vote was on the China-Russia resolution for an extension of 6 months without a snapback mechanism. It took place on September 25 and failed as predicted, but by the surprising same vote as the first (4 Yes/9 No/ 2 Abstain).
The third vote would have been on an E3 resolution for an extension of 6 months with a snapback mechanism. E3 would, I hoped, present and vote for this resolution to avoid the downsides of activating 'snapback' sanctions. That did not happen. Why can be the subject of much debate. Rob Macaire of the Atlantic Council wrote on September 19, ‘snapback sanctions threaten to take us into further sterile confrontation...a dilemma of negotiations versus repeated bombing.’
So, what will happen next? Iran International has reported on what the leaders of Iran, Russia and China have said in the past 24 hours in response to the UNSC action. Here is a summary.
Iran
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. “The other party [U.S.] breaks its promises in everything, lies about everything, and constantly threatens with military action.” “If they can, they assassinate our figures such as Martyr Soleimani or bomb our nuclear facilities; one cannot negotiate with such a side, nor sit down with trust and confidence to make agreements.”
President Masoud Pezeshkian. Upon returning to Tehran. “If today their issue is nuclear, tomorrow they will raise non-nuclear matters, because they do not want a powerful Iran," “If we are to choose between the unreasonable demands of the Americans and the snapback, our choice is the snapback.”
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Told UN Security Council: "Iran put forward several constructive proposals in New York to avert an unnecessary and avoidable crisis, all were ignored." "The three European countries and the United States expected Iran to give up all its nuclear material or hand it over to them, in exchange for delaying the activation of the snapback mechanism by three or six months.” "I have to remind the distinguished representative of France that two nights ago, I agreed with your foreign minister a framework agreement, but he was not able to get the agreement of the United States.”
Araghchi. "China and Russia also believe that the activation of the snapback is illegal, and on October 18 all sanctions on Iran will end as per UNSC Resolution 2231." Tehran will start a legal battle at the UN Security Council in October as it believes the snapback mechanism has not been activated and once Resolution 2231 expires on Oct. 18, all sanctions will be terminated.
Araghchi. The reimposition of UN sanctions could jeopardize Tehran's cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog.
Iran recalled its ambassadors from Germany, France and the UK for consultations. Iran’s parliament will discuss NPT exit on Sunday, September 28.
Russia - China
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov: Told UN General Assembly that West's rejection of "a rational proposal by China and Russia to extend the 2015 Iran deal in order to allow time for diplomacy, finally exposed the West's policy of sabotaging the pursuit of constructive solutions." It also exposed the West's "desire to extract unilateral concessions from Tehran through blackmail and pressure." "We consider such a policy to be unacceptable and consider all manipulations to restore anti-Iranian UN sanctions as well as the sanctions themselves to be illegal." "This is a deliberate operation aimed at starting the next stage of strangling the Islamic Republic of Iran economically, financially and so on.” "The threat of new strikes on Iran remains.”
China's deputy permanent representative to United Nations Geng Shuang. China was deeply disappointed at the result. "The current situation has reached a critical juncture. We call on all parties to exercise calm and restraint, continue dialogue and engagement, handle the current predicament prudently, and avoid escalating tensions."
Iranian President Pezeshkian stated on September 25 that Iran would not withdraw from NPT. That would be a step too far, resulting in Israel and U.S. attacks by the end of this year (Parsi’s projection).
Araghchi has repeatedly stated that, if snapback sanctions are reapplied, the September 9 Cairo agreement with IAEA would be voided and Iran would cease cooperation with IAEA. We shall see what they do.
I expect (hope) that Iran will continue cooperation with IAEA under their NPT safeguards agreement with restrictions justified by Israel’s repeated statements that it will attack Iran again. I do not expect that Iran will report to IAEA information on its stockpiles of enriched uranium, last verified by IAEA in June at Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan.
In his speech to the UN General Assembly on September 26, Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium…must be eliminated.” One can imagine the cat-and-mouse game going on with Israel using all means to find out where the uranium stockpiles are and Iran doing its best to hide that information. If I were in charge in Iran, I would divide up the stockpiles and put them in multiple underground locations. Israel’s Mossad agents in Iran may find some locations but maybe not all. Iran’s intention would be that there would be a credible case after the next Israel attacks that the status of Iran’s enriched uranium remains uncertain, that is, Iran remains at least a potential threshold nuclear weapon state.
Other developments to be noted, the IAEA Board of Governors meeting and the IAEA General Conference have taken place in September with no resolutions about the Iran situation. The next regular IAEA Board of Governors meeting will be November 17-21, and that could be the time for the Board to refer its June 2025 finding of Iran’s noncompliance with its NPT safeguards agreement to the UN Security Council. We shall see.
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