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Let’s not precipitate a crisis

The spotlight will move to Vienna and the IAEA as its Board of Governors meets next week and the annual General Conference (GC) the following week. How will the Board follow up its June resolution of noncompliance by Iran? And how will the GC respond to the bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities by Israel and the U.S. and the current safeguards situation there? 

Helpful context is provided by two media reports today. 

• Francois Murphy of Reuters reported on September 3 that IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi confirmed in an interview that IAEA has had no information from Iran on the status or whereabouts of its stock of high enriched uranium since Israel launched its attacks on June 13. Grossi said Iran has brought up the importance of keeping the location of its enriched uranium secret, given the threats by Netanyahu and the Trump administration to bomb again at any time. Normally IAEA does let over a month pass without verifying the status of high enriched uranium. So far, rather than precipitate a crisis by calling Iran out, IAEA is continuing technical talks on inspections with Iran. “It’s not something that can go on for months on end.,” Grossi said. 
• David Albright reported on X on September 2 the detection of dispersal of chillers at the bombed Natanz enrichment site, noting that appears to be a tactic to make them less vulnerable to future aerial bombardment. 

If you were in Iran’s shoes, would you keep locations secret and move special equipment to greater safety from further military attack? Should Iran go back into talks with Witkoff trusting there will be no more attacks? Recall what Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi posted on August 30: ‘The reality is that we are at a point where the West cannot even guarantee that it will cease further unlawful military strikes on my people while negotiations are held.’ 

So, keeping the locations and amounts of its high enriched uranium secret is clearly and understandably what Iran is doing - and what you would do. IAEA should find a way to deal with that ‘reality’. Hopefully, IAEA Member States will deal with this unfortunate situation diplomatically at the Board and General Conference.

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