March 3, 1918 - Bennett gives Don Martin go ahead for France, and Don Martin summarizes war situation

Don Martin diary entry for Sunday, March 3, 1918: 

Looks as if I might get to the front after all! Got wire from Commodore telling me to make arrangements to go, leaving office as I suggested to Champion and Baird. Asked how soon I can go and if Washington must make authorization. Replied that Washington must act but I will get busy tomorrow. Also got wire to cable my Henderson interview. Sent 1000 words and it is a very good story. In the afternoon went with Russell to have tea with him at the home of a woman acquaintance of his. She is rather more intelligent than most of his friends. Got up at 1 p.m.  Spent all the evening at the office

Weather rainy + cold.

  Don Martin wrote a comprehensive summary of the war situation as seen from London, including data on shipping losses as of February 25. This mailed dispatch was published in the New York Herald on Monday  March 18, 1918, with a Don Martin byline. Don Martin was in Neufchateau, France, then. It was dated Sunday, probably Sunday, March 3. 

Allied Victory Certain by 1919, but Submarine Is Still a Great Peril 

United States Now Setting the Pace and Other Nations May Support Whatever Attitude She Takes—Is Big Brother to Entente and Doom to the Hun

By DON MARTIN

[Special to the Herald]

Herald Bureau, No. 130 Fleet Street, London, Sunday

     If the civil populations “stick” there will be a complete victory, but it probably won’t come before 1919

     That is the conclusion one is justified in reaching here in the thick of the war atmosphere. But for the Russian collapse, which is complete and hopeless, an end of the war in 1918 was in sight. That end was predicated on a great allied offensive. With the German armies reinforced and literally hewn into the earth. the indications are that there will be no concerted offensive against the Hun before midsummer, and perhaps not then. 

     England’s great problem does not lie on the western front, however. It lies with the submarine, which is still a grave menace. The following statistics show the net result of the submarine activity, or the British shipping losses, for a year up to February 1 of this year.

	Big ships	Small Ships	Total	Unsuccessfully attacked	Total attacked
Feb 25	16	6	22	16	38
Weekly Averages
March (5 weeks)	16.4	8.2	24.6	15.6	40.2
April (4 weeks)	29.0	9.5	38.5	21.0	59.5
May (5 weeks)	17.6	8.2	25.8	18.8	44.6
June (4 weeks)	21.5	6.5	28.0	22.5	50.5
July (4 weeks)	17.0	3.25	20.25	13.75	34.0
Aug. (5 weeks)	17.6	3.2	20.8	9.8	30.6
Sept. (4 weeks)	10.5	7.75	18.25	11.0	20.25
Oct. (4 weeks)	14.5	4.75	19.25	5.25	24.5
Nov. (5 weeks)	9.6	4.8	14.4	6.4	20.8
Dec. (4 weeks)	14.25	3.75	18.0	9.75	27.75
Jan. (5 weeks)	9.6	3.2	12.8	8.2	21.0

Gravest Period to Come

     The gravest period of all, so far as submarines are concerned, will be the next three months. If in that period the German snakes of the sea fail to fulfill the Von Tirpitz promises the danger of grievously injuring England from beneath the sea’s surface will have passed. And meanwhile the United States is taking her place on the battle line, and the British, Colonials and the French are gazing upon them with admiration.

     A strong peace offensive from Germany is now believed to be more probable than a sustained military offensive. With Russia practically at their mercy, the Germans, experts say, would make almost any kind of a western peace and still be big winners in net results of the war. 

     But it is well to bear in mind this seemingly established fact—Germany, with all her new divisions from the eastern front, cannot demolish the Allied line, though she may cripple it temporarily, and, therefore, for the next few months the world will see two military Titans glowering at each other over a barbed wire barrier almost humanly impossible to surmount.

German People Tired of War

     If one is to judge from the editorials in the German newspapers, the people of Germany are tired of the war and would gladly accept the terms laid down by President Wilson if the militaristic group would relinquish its ambition for conquest. It is a fair deduction from the statements made in the German press also that but for the mailed fist of the militarists a large element of the population would demand peace.

     The collapse of Russia heartened the Germans. Prospects of a commercial conquest of that domain and the persistent promises of Von Tirpitz that the submarine will yet force England to her knees are the food upon which the war weary masses of the Central Empires are being fed. A prominent Briton who reads German newspapers—and copies of all of them are obtained—tells me that Germany is not confident of winning against the Allies.

All the German calculations, it is asserted, are based on a termination of the war before the United States gets into full action. German prisoners—Saxons, many of them, who are hostile to the Prussian domination—have told allied officers that while Germany derides America, she knows in her heart that so long as America gives her resources to the allied cause Germany’s hopes for a satisfactory peace are very slim.

Thorn in Hun’s Side

     The United States is unquestionably the thorn in Germany’s side, and although there is a disposition here to hasten peace, the feeling is growing that the United States will continue to be the thorn in Germany’s side until Wilson peace has been effected.

     The statement is quite frankly made now by public speakers that the anti-German forces could have obtained only a    without America’s aid. France and   Holland were both in the doldrums. Reports now coming from the highest sources say that France is more virile than ever and more enthusiastic than at any other period, and all because of the wholehearted support given by America. England is war weary. No secret is made of that fact. But she is at the maximum of her strength, and, despite mumblings now and then by certain labor elements and the earnest desire of the business element for peace, she will “carry on” till the men from over the seas are in the line. 

     Statesmen in England are constantly asking if the desire for peace will p  of a continuation of the war until the original idea of peace is carried out, viz. repudiation by the people of Germany,  of the forces which plunged them and the world into war. There is no violation of confidence in saying that the mass of people of Great Britain do not feel that it is necessary to “go to the limit,” as it is said, do not feel that the Hohennzollerns must be cast out before there can be peace negotiations. 

America to Set the Pace

     But the men who do the thinking for this nation are fairly of the opinion that the United States, with her whole heart and soul in the war of idealism, will negotiate only with a Germany, which is representative of the “People” and not representative of the present ruling class.

     In other words, to paraphrase the sentiments of the Europeans, the United States will from this time on set the pace and the Allies will have to support her in whatever attitude she takes. She is the one upon which hangs the big situation. She is at once the big brother of the Allies and the doom of the Hun. 

     Writing in the Manchester Guardian, Mr. Edgar Wallace, one of the most eminent of the experts, said:--

     “Supposing that Germany were able to get a peace based upon the surrender of Alsace and her colonies and the relinquishment of her authority in the Russian provinces, her plans would be fairly obvious.

No Need for Great Navy

     “There would be no need for a great navy. She could protect herself by minefields and submarines. She would devote her attention to the building of U-boats and aircraft, and save a great deal of money which otherwise would be spent on the construction of larger guns and perfect her land forces for the conquest of France, Holland, Belgium and England. These secured, she would turn her attention to America.

     “There is nothing fantastic about that theory; it is a common sense view of what would happen. If the present form of German government remains on top, the question of peace or war is at the discretion of a small coterie of princes. It is inevitable that a second war would follow, and just as inevitable that if the people of France, England and American stick with it, the world conquering dreams of Germany will be forever shattered. It may be that sticking it out for another two years is better, if we suffered a little for the next years than that our sons should be conscripted, that we should be burdened with enormous taxation than that our country should live under the menace of war more terrible than this present war has been.