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Russia/China play the diplomatic card

        First, the good news: IAEA inspectors are back in Iran for inspection of nuclear facilities that were not attacked in the 12-day war in June. It is reported that IAEA inspectors will perform inspection during refuelling at the Bushehr nuclear power plant. 
        Second, the OK news: the E3 and Iran met again, in Geneva on Aug 26, for further discussion of the E3 threat to activate ‘snapback’ sanctions under UNSC/RES/2231, with the result being agreeing to meet again. 
        Third, the exciting news: Iran International reported that Russia and China have played a diplomatic card, circulating to the UN Security Council members a draft resolution calling for a six-month technical extension of UNSC/RES/2231 to April 18, 2026, with the possibility of further extensions, while urging all original participants to resume negotiations immediately. 
        Those three happenings are tied together in a marvelously complex manner. At a July E3-Iran meeting, Iran was offered a 6-month extension in return for concessions. I have not seen details about those concessions. One is said to be restart of cooperation with IAEA and inspections. That is happening, but probably not yet to the extent needed to satisfy E3. 
        The Russia/China draft UNSC resolution is reported by Reuters and Iran International to include suspending "any substantive consideration of matters related to resolution 2231 and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)" during the extension” by the Security Council during the 6-month period. The resolution calls for U.S.-Iran negotiation and should mean no U.S. military attack on Iran. That also means no possibility of activating ‘snapback’ sanctions. A 6-month pause! 
        So, Russia and China are showing how diplomacy can be used. Hats off! Reuters and Iran International reported on Aug 27 that the “E3 is due to initiate the sanctions as early as Thursday [Aug 27].” That would start a specified 30-day period for UNSC consideration of the UNSC/RES/2231-JCPOA 'snapback' provision. 
        But the E3 have been outplayed and will grudgingly have to support the Russian/Chinese extension resolution, understanding that Russia or China would veto their extension resolution because it does not include such a suspension of UNSC action. The other possible outcome is that UNSC/RES/2231 and JCPOA will terminate on October 18 as scheduled. There is likely going to be an intense exchange in the UNSC about whether the E3 have the legal standing to call for 'snapback' in view of their not being in compliance with their economic obligations under JCPOA. Russia and China are on the record that the E3 do not and therefore cannot activate 'snapback'. 
        And what will Mr. Trump do? Will he accept the reasonable proposition of a 6-month extension to allow time for U.S. and Iran to negotiate a possible deal? Or will Trump do the bidding of Netanyahu, who no doubt already has his forces working full out to defeat the Russian/Chinese resolution, and veto it, thereby possibly nudging Iran over the cliff into NPT withdrawal?



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