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Putting the Pieces Together

Reports on December 24 by Iran International and Euronews gave a sobering view that can be put together as follows. 

Iran’s position on nuclear may have shifted 
        Director of US National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told the Senate Intelligence Committee in March "in the past year, we have seen an erosion of a decades-long taboo in Iran on discussing nuclear weapons in public, likely emboldening nuclear weapons advocates within Iran's decision-making apparatus." 
        Ali Shamkhani, a top adviser to Khamenei, in October, openly mused about Iran pursuing a nuclear weapon, saying: "now that it has become clear, Iran should have developed this capability for itself." 
        The 12-day war exposed weaknesses in Iran’s air defenses, while highlighting the limits of its missile arsenal in a prolonged conflict. “The only true deterrent that could save the Iranian regime in the event of a conflict against Israel and its US allies would be nuclear weapons.” 
        December 24 report by Italian Institute for International Political Studies: Iran appears to be prioritizing warhead design over enrichment to reduce the risk of exposure to military strikes. “Our sources in Tehran now tell us that, Khamenei made a decision in October to authorize development of compact warheads for ballistic missiles, though not to increase uranium enrichment beyond 60%."
        “While enrichment to 90% would require only a few weeks if there were still enough working centrifuges, compact warheads remain a far more complex challenge,” citing Pakistan in the 1990s requiring years of testing and design work before a viable compact warhead was achieved. Iran could seek external assistance to shorten the timeline for developing compact warheads 

IAEA cannot verify enriched uranium in Iran 
        Eslami, head of Iran’s atomic agency, said on December 24: “It must be made clear what response is required if a military attack is carried out against a nuclear industry that is registered with and monitored by the IAEA.” He said Tehran would ignore calls for renewed inspections of nuclear sites hit by the United States in June until that question is settled.  
        Satellite imagery from the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security indicates that Iran has made efforts to access the Isfahan tunnel complex where enriched uranium may be stored. 
        The Italian report said rumors persist of an undisclosed enrichment effort at a covert site not declared to IAEA. 

        And the drumbeat for Iran and Israel reengaging is getting louder. Recall Netanyahu will be at Mar-a-Lago on December 29.

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