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Eldar Mamedov’s Dispatch from Tehran

I believe what Eldar Mamedov writes always hits the target and is worth considering. He visited Tehran and posted in The American Conservative  his dispatch. First, I give an encapsulation of his argument on Iran. Then I will add some comments.
Mamedov Dispatch 
        Tehran is hunkering down, not buckling. Iran is prepared for round two (the importance and credibility of Iran’s missile capabilities has been proven). But Iran is convinced that a diplomatic solution could still be found, although the path through Washington remains blocked. (This could involve the regional consortium for uranium enrichment, in which Iran would enrich up to around four percent while its stockpiles of high enriched uranium would be shipped abroad). 
        Now, Iran is trapped in a diplomatic dead end of Washington’s making. The current path is a sucker’s bet: Iran faces severe punishment for maintaining a “threshold” civilian nuclear program while gaining little to no strategic advantage. Reformists argue why cling to 60 percent enrichment and invite crippling sanctions? 
        In the current climate the pragmatic argument is losing to the defiant one. The only language the West understands is the language of undeniable strength. The option of pursuing the bomb is therefore gaining popularity. “The Non-Proliferation Treaty is seen by many as not working in Iran’s interest.” Why remain in a treaty that only brings punishment without security? 

Commentary 
        The ‘Round two’ that Iran is preparing for will not be initiated by the U.S. Israel will apply its Begin Doctrine (from 1981) for the 4th time. Understandably, Mamedov was very careful in not referring to Israel for his American audience. Rather, he writes of his hope for a ‘demonstration of a serious intention to engage with Tehran’ by the Trump administration, not explicitly saying that will hold off Israel’s second round of ‘mowing the grass’. 
        The two key issues in the Iran nuclear conundrum are Israel’s aggressive regional behavior with Iran as its prized target, and Iran’s ‘threshold’ civilian nuclear program, intended to relieve sanctions but not succeeding in doing so. The two potential outcomes we want to avoid are a more major military conflict, and Iran leaving NPT and moving toward nuclear weapons. Those are tough! 
        Mamedov expresses the possibility that Saudi Arabia could play the moderating role with Iran (and the U.S.). It could push the development of that uranium enrichment consortium with Iran and it being partners (and the U.S. having a couple observers on site, playing lots of poker to pass the time). More importantly, Saudi Arabia could also play the moderating role with Israel. Suppose it would make crystal clear to Netanyahu and Trump that all bets are off for it joining the Abraham Accords if Israel strikes Iran again. It is in Saudi Arabia’s self-interest to play those moderating roles. Let’s hope they do so..

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