On October 24, 2025, in Responsible Statecraft, Eldar Mamedow wrote that ‘ the world’s major powers are now operating under two irreconcilable interpretations of international law. On one side, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany assert that the sanctions snapback mechanism of the JCPOA was legitimately triggered for Iran’s alleged violations. On the other, Iran, Russia, and China reject this as an illegitimate procedural act. This has created a far less predictable and more fragmented world .’            On Termination Day, October 18, 2025, Moscow’s foreign ministry said Western efforts to restore UN sanctions were “ legally null and void .” And last week, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov issued a statement that contained the message: Russia now considers all pre-2015 U.N. sanctions on Iran, snapped back by the European signatories of the JCPOA, “ annulled .” Moscow will deepen its military-technical cooperation w...

As reported by Iran International, Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, told the media that Russia, China and Iran on Friday, October 24, sent two letters.            One to the UN Secretary General and the President of the Security Council declared: ‘ All provisions of Resolution 2231 have now lapsed, and attempts by European countries to reactivate sanctions through the so-called snapback mechanism are illegal and without effect. ’            The second letter to IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated that Resolution 2231, which endorsed the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), formally expired on Oct. 18: ’ With this termination, the reporting mandate of the Director General of the IAEA concerning verification and monitoring under Security Council Resolution 2231 has come to an end,’ and ‘as of 18 October 2025, this matter will be automatically removed from the Board of Governors’ agen...

As we approach the one-month mark after the Security Council action on September 28 to reactivate UNSC/RES/2231 ‘ snapback ’ sanctions, where is the Iran nuclear conundrum today? Let’s look back at what I forecast as the outcome of the ‘ snapback ’ decision in my September 13, 2025, blog. I listed four possible outcomes with expected reactions by Iran, IAEA and Israel. Of the four outcomes, A, B, C and D, A was the worst. And that is what has happened. Here is my outcome A.  A. Snapback of UNSC sanctions after 30 days  Iran : Stop negotiations with E3. Stop cooperation with IAEA on inspections at bombed sites. Threaten to withdraw from NPT if further actions against it are taken, e.g., military attack by Israel and/or U.S. Offer to negotiate with U.S. with enrichment and ballistic missiles as redlines.  U.S. : ?  IAEA : Maintain cooperation under NPT safeguards agreement, as permitted by Iran. Report Iran’s failures to meet its NPT obligations to Board of Governors, ...

With the occurrence of Termination Day on October 18, 2025, there is the question of just what terminated. UNSC/RES/2231 is clear that the resolution terminates on Termination Day, and the item is removed from the Security Council agenda. That includes Annex B. Statement , whose provisions anyway applied only for 5 to 10 years from JCPOA Adoption Day, which is Termination Day. But what about Annex A. JCPOA?            My reading is that JCPOA has a life of its own and it is not terminated when RES/2231 terminates. But I may be wrong. A verdict by the legal team that produced JCPOA is needed. Here is my evaluation:           Many JCPOA provisions include “ for 15 years ” (see list below) and a couple for 20 and 25 years. There is no start date or reference to a defined date, such as Implementation Day or Adoption Day. There are no provisions that mention “ 10 years ”. And it is remarkable that RES/2231 has no mention of “ 1...

October 18, 2025. Termination Day for UNSC/RES/2231 (2015). And with it, almost all of the JCPOA (a couple measures have longer termination periods).            What about the ‘ snapback ’ sanctions in the six UNSC resolutions of 2006-2010? Did they go in force on September 27 or did they not?            Well, here is what the Russians and the Iranians are saying about that.            On September 26, in the discussion regarding a vote in the UN Security Council on a Russian-Chinese proposed resolution to extend RES/2231, Russia stated, inter alia: Since the Security Council did not adopt a resolution on the technical extension of UNSC Resolution 2231, then it will cease to be in effect in accordance with the established timeline – which is the termination day of the JCPOA, namely October 18, 2025 … there has been no “snapback” and there will be no “snapback.” Any attempts to “resus...

“ Actions speak louder than words .” But Donald Trump has been very talkative about Iran in the past days and during his trip to Israel and Egypt. Here is a compilation of Trump’s reported sayings about Iran and reactions by some others.  Trump welcoming first phase of Gaza peace plan, October 9   " Because of us, the enemies of all civilization are in retreat, thanks to the bravery and skill of the Israeli defense forces and Operation Rising Lion. Great job and my people loved working with you. Many of Iran’s top terrorists including nuclear scientists and commanders have been extinguished from this earth ." " We dropped 14 bombs on Iran’s nuclear facilities, which has been confirmed to have obliterated those facilities and together we helped stop the world’s number one state sponsor of terrorism from making nuclear weapons. If we didn’t do that, there would be a dark cloud over this [Gaza] deal. This was our last shot. ”  " When someone told me [Iran] had star...

I think it takes legal training to understand the situation with UNSC/RES/2231 (2015) after next Saturday, October 18, 2025 (which is ten years after JCPOA Adoption Day), with ‘ snapback ’ activated as of September 27, 2025. I have not seen a writeup on this, and I may make some misstatements in this blog.           The following sections of UNSC/RES/2231 are involved:  Main Body. Paras 7, 8, 12, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 30.  Annex A. JCPOA : Annex IV, Joint Commission; Annex V, Implementation Plan, E, UNSCR Termination Day; F, Other  Annex B. Statement : Paras 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. 7  Termination of UNSC/RES/2231  JCPOA Annex V - Implementation Plan, E. UNSCR Termination Day . Para 23 and 24 would have terminated RES/2231 on October 18 and removed this topic from the Security Council agenda, but that has been overridden by ‘ snapback .’  Para 30 of RES/2231 is intriguing: “ Decides to remain seized of the matter until the termination of...

Vali Nasr surprised me the other night in his interview with Christine Ananpour when he clearly stated (twice) that the U.S. had vetoed an agreement reached by the E3 and Iran that would have delayed for 6 months the ‘ snapbac k’ deadline from Oct 18, 2025. As a result, ‘ snapback ’ sanctions went into effect on September 28.            That was at least the second time the Trump administration wouldn’t go forward with an agreement with Iran: [Iranian Foreign Minister] Araghchi … recalled the fifth round of talks he led with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff on May 23…He noted that if "POTUS" reviewed the official minutes of those meetings…he would see how close both sides came to finalizing what could have been a historic nuclear deal. Araghchi alleged. [Amir Daftari, Newsweek, Oct 8, 2025]            Why would the Trump administration have done that? Daftari wrote that Israel played a central role in provoking tensio...

An exchange between President Trump and Iran on October 6 ( reported by Amir Daftari of Newsweek ) showed why successful negotiations look improbable at best.            At the U.S. Navy’s 250th anniversary in Norfolk, Virginia, Trump praised the June 22 strikes on Iran’s Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. “ They were going to have a nuclear weapon within a month. And now they can start the operation all over again, but I hope they don’t because we’ll have to take care of that too if they do. No previous president had the guts to do it ,” warning that the U.S. would act even faster if Iran resumed its nuclear program.            Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmail Baghaei called Trump’s threat a “ criminal and illegal act” that reinforced America’s image as a violator of international law. “ It will be clear to the international community and to the Iranian nation that the United States is a law-breaking country. ” ...

The Iran conundrum is on a side burner for a little while, with Gaza-Palestine and Ukraine on the main burners. It appears that the U.S. administration has little interest in a deal with Iran, preferring military threats as a lead up to more military action. President Trump’s appetite for using his military power may be growing; we see him bragging about ordering the killing of Venezuelans. Recall that he did order the assassination of Suleimani.            Nobody but the Trump administration and Israel is happy about this bubbling situation. Here is a capsule summary of what was said in the past two days, as reported in the Washington Post and Iran International.           Trump administration believes that now is the time to dial up pressure, and that snapback sanctions will “ create the environment ” for “ a diplomatic solution .”            U.S. fuel tankers have been deployed to the ...

Ray Takeyh of the Council on Foreign Relations published on September 29, 2025, “ The Ripple Effect of UN Sanctions on Iran’s Nuclear Program .” Here is his pessimistic, if realistic, view.            The Iranian regime has survived the war intact. Both Israel and the United States have come out of the twelve-day war believing they can impose costs on Iran with impunity. The country is permeated with fear that a war can restart at any time.             Iran has maintained its redlines. It will not abandon enrichment or discuss its missile program. Exchanging nuclear concessions for sanctions relief has little audience in Iran’s corridors of power. Should there be talks between the U.S. and Iran, they are likely to be quickly deadlocked.   Meir Ben-Shabbat and Asher Fredman published in Foreign Affairs dated September 12, 2025, “ What Israel Wants .” Here is their view.        ...