Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi summed up Iran’s positions in speeches on Saturday, July 12. Here is a compilation with some comments.
Iran-U.S. Talks. “[Iran] is examining timing, location, form, ingredients, and the assurances it requires” for possible negotiations with the U.S. “First of all, there should be a firm guarantee that such actions will not be repeated. The attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities has made it more difficult and complicated to achieve a solution based on negotiations.”
“If negotiations are held … the subject of the negotiations will be only nuclear and creating confidence in Iran’s nuclear programme in return for the lifting of sanctions. No other issues will be subject to negotiation." Iran’s position on the need to continue enriching uranium on its soil was reaffirmed.
If Donald Trump is made aware of Araghchi’s statements by Steve Witkoff, he would probably shout, ‘Who does he think he is setting conditions for me! I set conditions for Iran and everyone else!’ So, does Araghchi’s guarantee condition mean talks are ‘no go’?
Iran-IAEA. “Our cooperation with [IAEA] has not stopped, but will take on a new form,” Iran’s new law requires future inspections of Iran’s nuclear sites by the IAEA to be approved by the Supreme National Council. Iran will answer IAEA’s request for cooperation “case by case,” based on Iran’s interests.
IAEA inspection should be done based on Iran’s “security” concerns as well as the safety of the inspectors. “The risk of proliferation of radioactive ingredients and an explosion of ammunition that remains from the war in the attacked nuclear sites is serious.”
Two things going on there. First, Iran is trying to get around noncompliance with its information and access obligations under its NPT safeguards agreement by adding in a national security condition. That’s a first ever. How will IAEA and its Board of Governors react? Second, Iran is setting up safety requirements as reason why IAEA inspectors will not be given access to the bombed out facilities as they are dug out. IAEA NPT inspections should deal with verification of nuclear material declarations. There is also design information verification, but, for that, Iran should first submit revised Design Information Questionnaires, and that is unlikely to happen for a long time.
Iran-E3. Snapback of United Nations sanctions on the country “would signify the end of Europe’s role in the Iranian nuclear dossier.”
The E3 have threatened to activate the JCPOA process that might lead to a UN Security Council decision to ‘snapback’ its sanctions in place in 2015. Araghchi is warding that off and Iran will not let that happen. Commentators have suggested that the E3 are doing this because they are miffed that Donald Trump and Steve Witkoff have ignored them so far in the talks with Iran and they want in, as in 2013-2015. Trump would rather put tariffs on Europe and otherwise ignore them (except for NATO countries buying U.S. weapons to give to Ukraine). As explained in the blog on June 7, this snapback business is a ‘tempest in a cup of tea’.
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