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E3 Grasping at Straws

In his July 16 report about the E3 and snapback, Kian Sharifi, RFE/RL, wrote: ‘While the expiration window to reapply the sanctions closes in October, the Europeans can choose to delay the snapback beyond the expiry date in order to allow more time for further negotiations.’ 
Let’s see what the E3 have in mind. Here are the relevant parts of UN Security Council RES/2231 (2015). 

UN Security Council Resolution 2231 (2015) 
Adopted by Security Council at its 7488th meeting, on 20 July 2015 
Terminations 
7. Decides, acting under Article 41 of the Charter of the United Nations, (a) The provisions of resolutions 1696 (2006), 1737 (2006), 1747 (2007), 1803 (2008), 1835 (2008), 1929 (2010) and 2224 (2015) shall be terminated. 
8. Decides, acting under Article 41 of the Charter of the United Nations, that on the date ten years after the JCPOA Adoption Day [October 18, 2025], as defined in the JCPOA, all the provisions of this resolution shall be terminated, and none of the previous resolutions described in paragraph 7 (a) shall be applied, the Security Council will have concluded its consideration of the Iranian nuclear issue… 
Annex A: Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, Vienna, 14 July 2015 
Dispute Resolution Mechanism 
36. … 
37. Upon receipt of the notification from the complaining participant, as described above, including a description of the good-faith efforts the participant made to exhaust the dispute resolution process specified in this JCPOA, the UN Security Council, in accordance with its procedures, shall vote on a resolution to continue the sanctions lifting. 
If the resolution described above has not been adopted within 30 days of the notification, then the provisions of the old UN Security Council resolutions would be re-imposed, unless the UN Security Council decides otherwise. 
The UN Security Council, expressing its intention to prevent the reapplication of the provisions if the issue giving rise to the notification is resolved within this period, intends to take into account the views of the States involved in the issue and any opinion on the issue of the Advisory Board. 

Paragraphs 7(a) of the main body of RES/2231 addresses the UNSC resolutions which imposed sanctions on Iran; paragraph 8 addresses termination of RES/2231 on October 18, 2025, stating that after that date none of those sanctions will apply. 
In Annex A, JCPOA, the Dispute Resolution Mechanism is addressed in two paragraphs. Paragraph 36 deals with consideration within the JCPOA Joint Commission; the June 7 blog gave details about that. Paragraph 37 deals with Security Council action on a dispute referred to it under para 36. (Note the wish for “good-faith efforts" to be made to resolve the dispute!). A result can be reimposition of UNSC sanctions if a resolution to continue sanctions lifting is not adopted within 30 days. It ends with “unless the UNSC decides otherwise.” 

Sharifi must have been told that E3 ‘can choose to delay the snapback beyond the expiry date’. That must mean using the “unless…” clause. E3 would introduce a resolution to extend paragraph 37 beyond October 18, 2025. Would such a resolution be adopted? I would bet that it would fail. Russia, China and other UNSC members would vote against it. I believe such a resolution could be vetoed and would be if required to kill it. 

 So, that’s why the E3 are “grasping at straws.”

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