Reports on December 24 by Iran International and Euronews gave a sobering view that can be put together as follows.  Iran’s position on nuclear may have shifted            Director of US National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told the Senate Intelligence Committee in March " in the past year, we have seen an erosion of a decades-long taboo in Iran on discussing nuclear weapons in public, likely emboldening nuclear weapons advocates within Iran's decision-making apparatus ."            Ali Shamkhani, a top adviser to Khamenei, in October, openly mused about Iran pursuing a nuclear weapon, saying: " now that it has become clear, Iran should have developed this capability for itself."             The 12-day war exposed weaknesses in Iran’s air defenses, while highlighting the limits of its missile arsenal in a prolonged conflict. “ The only true deterrent that could save the Iranian r...

This 1:48 hour long meeting should be required viewing by all persons involved or interested in the Iran nuclear conundrum. It is available on the UN website.             The official UN news report summarized the meeting this way: The Security Council’s stance on Iran’s nuclear activities remained divided on the issue, split between those who support the reinstatement of sanctions, and the members who believe the sanctions should be permanently lifted, whilst questioning the legality of the meeting itself .            The headlines of news reports tell a mixed story:  Security Council remains divided over Iran nuclear programme, sanctions stay in place (UN News) Russia, China reject Iran sanctions at Security Council showdown (Iran International)  US, Iran spar over nuclear talks at UN (Reuters)            Government (plus EU) statements strongly called for “ diplomacy ...

Iran International posted on December 22 a flurry of articles reporting what was being said about Iran by spokespersons from the U.S., Iran, Israel, Russia and IAEA. Here are highlights.  U.S. and Israel            Senator Lindsey Graham on December 21 in Israel said the United States should strike Iran again: “ If there’s credible evidence that Iran is going back into the enrichment business at other sites, that they’re trying to build more ballistic missiles to terrorize Israel and maybe Europe, that we hit them before they can do that. ”            President Trump said any attempt to revive Iran’s program without an agreement would prompt further US action.            Axios reported on December 22 that Israel had warned the United States that Iran’s missile drills could be used as cover for preparations for a surprise attack.   Iran and Israel and U.S.   ...

Gordon Lubold of NBC News reported on December 20 what is expected to happen when Netanyahu meets Trump at Mar-a-Lago on December 29. That has raised the hackles of Trita Parsi, who responded immediately on Substack, ' Netanyahu is back demanding more war with Iran '.            Lubold also reported (new for me): ‘ Prior to the strikes in June, the Israelis had presented Trump with four options for military action.... Israeli officials laid out the options on a coffee table in the Oval Office... One involved Israel going it alone, another included limited U.S. support, a third was the U.S. and Israel conducting joint operations against Iran, and a fourth had the U.S. conducting the operation on its own... Ultimately Trump decided to approve a joint operation. … Netanyahu may present Trump with a similar set of options during their [December 29] Mar-a-Lago meeting .’            What would this ‘ mowing the law n’ focus...

David Barnea, head of Israel's Mossad intelligence agency, said on December 16 “ The idea of continuing to develop a nuclear bomb still beats in [the ayatollahs’] hearts. We bear responsibility to ensure that the nuclear project, which has been gravely damaged, in close cooperation with the Americans, will never be activated. The ayatollahs’ regime woke up in a moment to discover that Iran is exposed and thoroughly penetrated, yet Iran has not given up its aspiration to destroy the State of Israel. Iran believes it can deceive the world again and realize another bad nuclear agreement. We did not and will not allow a bad deal to come to fruition .”            We did not allow a bad deal to come to fruition . That is a boast of the Israeli government that their June 13 attack on Iran stopped Steve Witkoff from reaching a deal with Iran at the scheduled June 15 meeting.            We will not allow a bad deal to come to ...

There is unfortunate linkage between IAEA’s nonproliferation role in Iran and global politics. To make progress in resolving the Iran nuclear conundrum, it is important to achieve separation of those two strands. And that will not be easy.            IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has been campaigning for the UN Secretary General position for much of this year. The UN Secretary General nomination process for the 2027-2031 term opened on November 25 and on November 27 the Argentine government formally proposed Rafael Grossi. It is to be expected that will be a major focus for Grossi in the first half of 2026. The UN Security Council is scheduled to select its preferred candidate in July 2026. Once the Security Council has agreed on a candidate they are expected to be appointed by a vote of the UN's General Assembly.            Iran International reported on December 16 that Amir Saeid Iravani, Iran’s Ambassador an...

Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said on December 9 “ The [NPT] safeguards agreement was not designed for wartime situations and therefore a new legal understanding is needed .” He said that articles 20–22 of the NPT safeguards agreement permit amendments in exceptional circumstances.            Let’s see what Kamalvandi referred to in INFCIRC/153.  20 . The Agreement should provide that the parties thereto shall, at the request of either, consult about any question arising out of the interpretation or application thereof.  21 . The Agreement should provide that the State shall have the right to request that any question arising out of the interpretation or application thereof be considered by the Board… 22. [ procedure to deal with a dispute arising from a Board finding ]            So, accepting that safeguards implementation under a ‘ wartime situation ’ is a ‘ q...

I believe what Eldar Mamedov writes always hits the target and is worth considering. He visited Tehran and posted in The American Conservative   his dispatch. First, I give an encapsulation of his argument on Iran. Then I will add some comments. Mamedov Dispatch            Tehran is hunkering down, not buckling. Iran is prepared for round two ( the importance and credibility of Iran’s missile capabilities has been proven ). But Iran is convinced that a diplomatic solution could still be found, although the path through Washington remains blocked. ( This could involve the regional consortium for uranium enrichment, in which Iran would enrich up to around four percent while its stockpiles of high enriched uranium would be shipped abroad ).            Now, Iran is trapped in a diplomatic dead end of Washington’s making. The current path is a sucker’s bet: Iran faces severe punishment for maintaining a “ threshold ” ...

Iran getting itself in the position of being a nuclear threshold state is a major part of the Iran nuclear conundrum. How to deal with an NPT threshold state has not been addressed in the framework of the NPT nonproliferation regime. And Iran is using that to its advantage.            Ray Takeyh has just given us his view in an article titled Trump’s Middle East Order in Foreign Affairs on Dec 4, 2025. Here is an encapsulation of what he writes about Iran and the U.S.            A menacing Iran sits near the nuclear threshold. The Islamic Republic is a problem to be managed, not wished away. The best way to get results with Tehran is through force.            Trump’s biggest accomplishment was the June 2025 strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The Iranian nuclear program has not been obliterated. The Iranian threat has been diminished. Trump, instead of continuing to menace Tehran...