Iran getting itself in the position of being a nuclear threshold state is a major part of the Iran nuclear conundrum. How to deal with an NPT threshold state has not been addressed in the framework of the NPT nonproliferation regime. And Iran is using that to its advantage.            Ray Takeyh has just given us his view in an article titled Trump’s Middle East Order in Foreign Affairs on Dec 4, 2025. Here is an encapsulation of what he writes about Iran and the U.S.            A menacing Iran sits near the nuclear threshold. The Islamic Republic is a problem to be managed, not wished away. The best way to get results with Tehran is through force.            Trump’s biggest accomplishment was the June 2025 strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The Iranian nuclear program has not been obliterated. The Iranian threat has been diminished. Trump, instead of continuing to menace Tehran...

The Iran nuclear conundrum is in a pause, or maybe a stalemate. That is good for Iran, giving them time to build back and build up their missile systems in preparation for the potential next Israeli strikes. Israel, busy with Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and maybe Yemen, doesn’t mind the pause with Iran. The Trump administration, over occupied with domestic matters and with Gaza-Israel, Ukraine-Russia, Taiwan-China, etc., has put Iran on the back burner.            What about IAEA? Unfortunately, there has been more mixing of the political with the technical both at the UN Security Council in September-October and at the IAEA Board of Governors in November. In this face-off, Iran, Russia and China are on one side; and the U.S. and E3 (France Germany and UK) are on the other.            Commentators postulate that the E3 has taken the actions against Iran to demonstrate that it is totally with the U.S., their objective being ...

Headlines of reports on Monday, November 3, 2025, tell the status of the nuclear conundrum.  Trump says curbing Iran nuclear capability central to Mideast peace ( Iran International )  Iran's Supreme Leader says cooperation with US not possible while it backs Israel ( Parisa Hafezi, Reuters )  Iran says Tehran-Washington message exchanges continue, not talks ( Iran International )  Iran President Pezeshkian says Iran will bolster nuclear program, rules out bomb ( Iran International )  60% uranium lies under rubble, no plan to retrieve it, Foreign Minister Araghchi says ( Iran International )

On October 24, 2025, in Responsible Statecraft, Eldar Mamedow wrote that ‘ the world’s major powers are now operating under two irreconcilable interpretations of international law. On one side, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany assert that the sanctions snapback mechanism of the JCPOA was legitimately triggered for Iran’s alleged violations. On the other, Iran, Russia, and China reject this as an illegitimate procedural act. This has created a far less predictable and more fragmented world .’            On Termination Day, October 18, 2025, Moscow’s foreign ministry said Western efforts to restore UN sanctions were “ legally null and void .” And last week, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov issued a statement that contained the message: Russia now considers all pre-2015 U.N. sanctions on Iran, snapped back by the European signatories of the JCPOA, “ annulled .” Moscow will deepen its military-technical cooperation w...

As reported by Iran International, Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, told the media that Russia, China and Iran on Friday, October 24, sent two letters.            One to the UN Secretary General and the President of the Security Council declared: ‘ All provisions of Resolution 2231 have now lapsed, and attempts by European countries to reactivate sanctions through the so-called snapback mechanism are illegal and without effect. ’            The second letter to IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated that Resolution 2231, which endorsed the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), formally expired on Oct. 18: ’ With this termination, the reporting mandate of the Director General of the IAEA concerning verification and monitoring under Security Council Resolution 2231 has come to an end,’ and ‘as of 18 October 2025, this matter will be automatically removed from the Board of Governors’ agen...

As we approach the one-month mark after the Security Council action on September 28 to reactivate UNSC/RES/2231 ‘ snapback ’ sanctions, where is the Iran nuclear conundrum today? Let’s look back at what I forecast as the outcome of the ‘ snapback ’ decision in my September 13, 2025, blog. I listed four possible outcomes with expected reactions by Iran, IAEA and Israel. Of the four outcomes, A, B, C and D, A was the worst. And that is what has happened. Here is my outcome A.  A. Snapback of UNSC sanctions after 30 days  Iran : Stop negotiations with E3. Stop cooperation with IAEA on inspections at bombed sites. Threaten to withdraw from NPT if further actions against it are taken, e.g., military attack by Israel and/or U.S. Offer to negotiate with U.S. with enrichment and ballistic missiles as redlines.  U.S. : ?  IAEA : Maintain cooperation under NPT safeguards agreement, as permitted by Iran. Report Iran’s failures to meet its NPT obligations to Board of Governors, ...

With the occurrence of Termination Day on October 18, 2025, there is the question of just what terminated. UNSC/RES/2231 is clear that the resolution terminates on Termination Day, and the item is removed from the Security Council agenda. That includes Annex B. Statement , whose provisions anyway applied only for 5 to 10 years from JCPOA Adoption Day, which is Termination Day. But what about Annex A. JCPOA?            My reading is that JCPOA has a life of its own and it is not terminated when RES/2231 terminates. But I may be wrong. A verdict by the legal team that produced JCPOA is needed. Here is my evaluation:           Many JCPOA provisions include “ for 15 years ” (see list below) and a couple for 20 and 25 years. There is no start date or reference to a defined date, such as Implementation Day or Adoption Day. There are no provisions that mention “ 10 years ”. And it is remarkable that RES/2231 has no mention of “ 1...

October 18, 2025. Termination Day for UNSC/RES/2231 (2015). And with it, almost all of the JCPOA (a couple measures have longer termination periods).            What about the ‘ snapback ’ sanctions in the six UNSC resolutions of 2006-2010? Did they go in force on September 27 or did they not?            Well, here is what the Russians and the Iranians are saying about that.            On September 26, in the discussion regarding a vote in the UN Security Council on a Russian-Chinese proposed resolution to extend RES/2231, Russia stated, inter alia: Since the Security Council did not adopt a resolution on the technical extension of UNSC Resolution 2231, then it will cease to be in effect in accordance with the established timeline – which is the termination day of the JCPOA, namely October 18, 2025 … there has been no “snapback” and there will be no “snapback.” Any attempts to “resus...

“ Actions speak louder than words .” But Donald Trump has been very talkative about Iran in the past days and during his trip to Israel and Egypt. Here is a compilation of Trump’s reported sayings about Iran and reactions by some others.  Trump welcoming first phase of Gaza peace plan, October 9   " Because of us, the enemies of all civilization are in retreat, thanks to the bravery and skill of the Israeli defense forces and Operation Rising Lion. Great job and my people loved working with you. Many of Iran’s top terrorists including nuclear scientists and commanders have been extinguished from this earth ." " We dropped 14 bombs on Iran’s nuclear facilities, which has been confirmed to have obliterated those facilities and together we helped stop the world’s number one state sponsor of terrorism from making nuclear weapons. If we didn’t do that, there would be a dark cloud over this [Gaza] deal. This was our last shot. ”  " When someone told me [Iran] had star...